Analysis
January 23, 2026
Sheet market participants report mixed signals, confusing outlook
Written by Kristen DiLandro
Sheet market sources found multiple, and sometimes confusing, conditions across the market this week.
Customer sentiment and purchases, mill prices, service center deals, and end-market steel demand all wove together to create a complicated picture of the current domestic sheet market.
Voices from the market
In the Midwest region, an independently owned and operated steel service center associate characterized the week’s market as “strange.”
“The week has been strange because we just can’t seem to drum up any momentum,” he said. “Half of our customers are very active and the other half are singing the blues. More money seems to be available for inventory and equipment.”
A different service center associate in the same region described a steady and profitable week.
“Business has been decent in January. Our company goal is a 20% increase in sales over last year and so far, this month, we have achieved that goal,” he said. “Margins are still holding firm.”
He added that with price increases he finds they’re not spiking but instead lifting.
“It doesn’t seem like pricing is climbing very fast at all. More of a snail’s crawl which is fine with me,” he said. “We are not hearing from our customers that the woods are on fire. It’s more like things are decent but not booming.”
The associate noted his cautious optimism and called out shortening mill lead times.
“HRC spot pricing seems to be holding around $47.50/cwt [$950 per short ton] on average, give or take. I am seeing only 4 weeks for HRC from both NLMK & North Star BlueScope. Cold-rolled is more 6 to 8 weeks. Some mills are still notoriously late on deliveries,” he added.
On the West Coast, an associate overseeing flat steel products at a mid-sized service center said the week’s business has been consistent. However, long-term indicators around sustained business viability have put him a little on edge.
“Business isn’t bad for us for the start of the year. Data center construction is good right now but once they’re built, what replaces that demand?” he asked. “The US electricity grid is in such poor shape, which can slow progress on projects that are scheduled to start this year, too.”
He noted that buying sheet from the mills is not advantageous to his operation right now. And, he pointed out that pricing he’s able to achieve from his local sources indicates that end-market demand is not very strong overall.
“We haven’t been buying HR from the mills lately. We’ve found that going to some of the local HR distributors is actually cheaper and the material is already leveled,” he said.
“That tells me they’re selling below replacement cost, and probably less than what they paid for the material,” the source added. “Business obviously isn’t that good. Likely, they just want to move material, probably for cash flow.”
Prices
SMU’s weekly price assessment found that hot-rolled coil spot prices reached a 10-month high of $945/st this week as of Tuesday, Jan. 20. That’s an increase of $10/st compared to the previous week. The week’s range for HR spanned $920-970/st.
The current HR-average spot price equates to a 38% increase compared to the equivalent week in 2025 when the average price was $685/st.
To assess and compare historical pricing data, check out SMU’s Interactive Pricing Tool.
