Analysis
February 1, 2026
Chicago Business Barometer expands in January
Written by David Schollaert
The Chicago Business Barometer rose further in January, moving into expansion territory for the first time since November 2023, according to Market News International (MNI) and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
The Barometer surveys purchasing and supply management professionals in the Chicago area each month to gauge company-level business conditions. January marks the first month of expansion for the index, following 25 consecutive months in contraction.
The January reading jumped 11.3 points to 54.0, well above the 2025 average rate of 42.3. The Barometer is a diffusion index. Radings above 50 indicate improving business conditions. Those below 50 indicate contraction. The index has only shown expansion twice in the last 41 months.
MNI attributed this rebound to gains in employment, new orders, order backlogs, and production. Weaker supplier deliveries provided a marginal offset.
Respondents were asked three special questions around wages in the survey, which ran from Jan. 2 to Jan. 14.
Q: How do you see your business activity growing in the first half of 2026, by percentage?
A: Nearly half (46%) said they anticipated growth of 1-5%. Of the remaining responses, 17% see growth between 5-10%, 17% see no growth, 14% see a decline, and 6% are unsure.
Q: How much do you expect to increase wages in 2026?
A: Nearly half (44%) said they expect a 2-4% wage increase this year. Another 31% believe wages will be flat to up 2% in 2026. Of the remaining results, 14% were unsure, 8% foresee a wage increase of 4-6%, and 3% expect a boost of more than 9% in wages in 2026.
Q: Do you expect there will be more dispersion in wage growth than usual for 2026?
A: Responses to this question were split. Just over a third (37%) of respondents said wage dispersion would be similar to normal this year. Another 26% were unsure. Of the remainder, 11% think wage dispersion will be less than in recent years. And 9% expect that there will be more dispersion in wage growth.
View the full release here.
