I haven’t done a deep dive into our sentiment data for a little while. And it’s timely to do so now. Why? Because we’re seeing what I’ll call the inverted yield curve of steel buyers’ sentiment.
US manufacturing activity grew for the fourth straight month in April, according to the latest report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). April marked the 18th month of overall economic expansion.
Market sources say 2026 could be a stronger year for plate market participants than 2025 if this week’s conditions are indicative of how the rest of the year plays out.
US manufacturing activity edged higher across most Federal Reserve Districts, with the Beige Book describing gains ranging from slight to moderate as producers navigated rising input costs and heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
Metalformers’ economic outlook for the second quarter softened in March, said the Precision Metalforming Association (PMA).
The Chicago Business Barometer eased in March, after growing repeatedly from December to February, according to MNI and ISM.
With the Iran war approaching its third week, the future course and scope of the conflict remain uncertain. Even so, while the human costs are the most immediate and tragic, the global economic implications have already proven to be significant.
Earlier this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to tariffs, imports, and evolving market events.
Metalforming manufacturers in the US and Canada expect stable to improving economic conditions in the next three months.
Primary metals, machinery, fabricated metal products, appliances and components, and transportation equipment reported growth in February.
The Chicago Business Barometer continued to rise in February, marking its second month in expansion territory, according to Market News International (MNI) and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
Over the last month, incoming macro data was encouraging but did not signal a wholesale change in trajectory from uneven expansion within industrials.
The final panel of last week’s Tampa Steel Conference brought together executives from three different service center, all of which were optimistic for 2026.
The latest Institute for Supply Management (ISM)’s Manufacturing PMI report found manufacturing activity expanded in January 2026. The preceding 26 consecutive months’ reports showed manufacturing activity in contraction.
The Chicago Business Barometer rose further in January, moving into expansion territory for the first time since November 2023, said MNI and ISM.
Tariffs affect different parts of the economy differently. Tariffs on steel imports have contributed to price increases from domestic mills, improving their bottom lines. But orders from customers are slowing down, hurting downstream industries’ profitability and job prospects.
SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics earlier this week, ranging from market prices and demand, to inventories, imports, and evolving market events.
SMU columnist Daniel Doderer looks out over the economy as it regards the steel industry.
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices both increased this week to multi-month highs
The Chicago Business Barometer increased in December after hitting an 18-month low in November, according to Market News International (MNI) and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)
The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) latest report finds that December 2025’s market conditions in the manufacturing sector continued to soften.
Growth remains uneven, and capital continues to concentrate. But compared to the rest of the world (RoW), the US continues to have the most stable path forward.
Earlier this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to tariffs, imports, and evolving market events.
The latest monthly ISM report confirms the American manufacturing sector continued to contract for another month. October marked the eighth consecutive month...
The Chicago Business Barometer’s October reading still indicates a cooling in general business activity despite posting a surprise gain.
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices both fell this week, with Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment notching the lowest reading since May 2020.
Economic growth in some US regions in September was offset by challenges in others, causing the market to appear largely unchanged overall, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book report.
Earlier this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to tariffs, imports, and evolving market events.
The Chicago Business Barometer's September reading indicates a softening in overall business activity in the Midwest for the third consecutive month, with new orders and backlogs retreating further.
Market chatter from steel buyers this week: prices steady to slightly higher, demand weak, inventories slow, and tariffs clouding the outlook.