Final Thoughts

The rapid-fire events since January 2025 have made it easy to get a case of tunnel vision. Still, despite the policy swings on the tariff front and uneven demand in the market, there are certain events you can set your clock on.

Of course, the quarterly calendar is one of them. We’re always excited to kick off earnings season here at SMU. Red or black ink? We let the numbers do the talking. But another regular marker in the industry is union contracts. And those negotiations have proven hard to predict as well.

That being said, the United Steelworkers (USW) union labor agreements with Cleveland-Cliffs and U.S. Steel expire on Sept. 1 of this year. Time to put them on the radar before negotiations start in earnest.

About the upcoming talks, a U.S. Steel spokesman told SMU, “Our employees are our greatest strength. The jobs they do are difficult, and they do them well.”

He added, “We value them and appreciate their support and excitement around the new investment opportunities we have. U.S. Steel will negotiate in good faith for the next contract.”

Cliffs did not respond to a request for comment for this story. And the USW, meanwhile, confirmed the Sept. 1 deadline but said it was too early to comment on bargaining details. However, they would let us know when they had more to share.

With how different the world is in 2026, it’s worth taking a look back.

USS contract

The USW ratified a four-year labor pact with Pittsburgh-based USS back in December 2022. A tentative agreement had been reached the previous month. Biden was in the White House. The iPhone 14 was the latest model available in stores. We’re talking a long time ago here.

The USW-represented employees numbered ~11,000 across 13 U.S. Steel flat-rolled, iron ore mining, and tubular operations who voted “overwhelmingly” in favor of ratifying the deal, according to our SMU archives. It didn’t apply to workers at the company’s Big River Steel works in Arkansas, a non-union facility.

The deal included a 21% base wage increase, better healthcare with no premiums, and improved retirement benefits. It also included an additional holiday, better vacation benefits, parental leave, and a $4,000 bonus.

Though some market participants had been worried about a lockout, no work stoppage occurred.

Cliffs pact

At roughly the same time, many described Cleveland-based Cliffs’ negotiations with the USW as more amicable. Workers ratified a deal with the steelmaker back in October 2022.

USW-represented employees — around 12,0000 across 13 Cliffs steelmaking facilities in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Illinois, West Virginia, and Minnesota — voted “overwhelmingly” in favor of ratifying the pact.

Highlights included a 20% base wage increase, improvements in insurance benefits for active and retired workers, enhanced pensions, and vacation and parental paid leave provisions.

Where are we now?

Obviously, there has been a lot of water under the bridge since then.

Most notably, U.S. Steel was acquired by Japanese steelmaker Nippon Steel in a deal first announced in December 2023 and finalized in June of last year.

Nippon has promised $14 billion in capital investments across USS facilities. Of that, $11 billion is slated for investment by the end of 2028.

The hard-fought deal came with conditions. For example, President Donald Trump has a “golden share” in the company, which gives him some power over company decisions.

(Click here to see President Trump’s influence regarding USS’ Granite City Works near St. Louis. The steelmaker recently started the process to restart its idled blast furnace ‘B’ at the facility.)

Note the USW had long opposed the deal with Nippon, preferring the offer by Cleveland-Cliffs, which had also been a suitor for USS.

For Cliffs, rumors have been swirling about a possible investment stake from South Korean steelmaker POSCO. Cliffs will announce its fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 9 before the market opens, with the earnings call at 8:30 a.m. ET on that day. It will be interesting to see if anything is announced.

Back in November, the steelmaker confirmed it had signed a memorandum of understanding with POSCO to form a strategic partnership that Cliffs touted as “transformative.”

Recall that POSCO and fellow South Korean company Hyundai have also announced a project to build a prospective $5.8-billion EAF mill in Louisiana. Traditionally, EAF mills in the South have not had union representation.

So how will union negotiations play out in this post-“Liberation Day” landscape? Don’t worry, we’ll report on it as soon as we find out.

Ethan Bernard

Ethan Bernard is managing editor for Steel Market Update. He previously worked for American Metal Market as a copy editor in the New York office for two years, starting in 2008. Later, he copy edited AMM’s monthly magazine on a freelance basis from 2015 until 2017. With experience in financial copywriting and textbook publishing, he holds a BA in Comparative Literature from UC Berkeley, and an MFA in Creative Writing from New York University. He can be reached at ethan@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-759-7871.