Market Data
February 6, 2026
Apparent steel supply tumbled to a multi-year low in November
Written by Brett Linton
The amount of finished steel that entered the US market in November slipped to a near five-year low, according to SMU’s analysis of recently released Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data. Dubbed apparent steel supply, this metric is calculated by combining domestic mill shipments with finished US steel imports, then subtracting total US exports.
November supply declined 9%, or 772,000 short tons (st), from October to 7.61 million st, the lowest measure recorded since February 2021. This reduction was primarily driven by a steep decline in domestic mill shipments, coupled with a slowdown in finished imports.
November supply was nearly a million tons lower than the average monthly supply rate seen across the prior year (8.55 million st). Before November, supply had fluctuated within a relatively stable range for more than three years. It averaged 8.45 million st per month during that time (Figure 1). For comparison, the highest measure recorded in our 15-year data history was 10.90 million st in 2014 and the lowest was 6.52 million st in 2020.
Trends
To better highlight trends, supply can be calculated on a three-month moving average (3MMA) to smooth out monthly fluctuations (Figure 2). On this basis, supply hit a four-year low of 7.99 million st in November 2024, then recovered to reach a near three-year high of 8.82 million st by July 2025. The November 3MMA declined for the fourth-consecutive month to an 11-month low of 8.21 million st.
Figure 3 shows the individual components of apparent supply and their changes from October to November:
- Domestic shipments tumbled 619,000 st m/m (8%) to a five-month low of 7.07 million st. They account for 92% of total supply. December figures were released earlier this week and showed a 5% reduction.
- Finished steel imports fell 252,000 st (19%) to a 16-year low of 1.10 million st. The latest license data shows a potential 10% recovery in December, followed by a 7% decline in January.
- Steel exports declined 99,000 st (15%) to 563,000 st, the lowest monthly rate since July 2020.
- Net imports (finished imports minus exports) made up 7% of November’s supply. This is one of the lowest rates recorded in recent years. It is significantly lower than the average rate of the last three years (12%).
To see an interactive graphic of our apparent steel supply history, click here. If you need any assistance logging into or navigating the website, contact us at smu@crugroup.com.
