Market Data
February 6, 2026
SMU Steel Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment Indices slip but still indicate optimism
Written by Brett Linton
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices both edged lower this week following the multi-month highs set in mid-January.
Our Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index eased from its previous 10-month high. The Future Buyers’ Sentiment Index also slipped from a near one-year high.
Both Sentiment Indices continue to reflect optimism among steel buyers about their businesses’ prospects. Since the start of this year, we have seen much higher buyer confidence compared to most of 2025.
Every other week, SMU polls thousands of steel industry executives, asking how they rate their companies’ chances of success today as well as three to six months down the road. Responses are used to calculate our Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices, measures we have tracked since 2008.
Current Sentiment
After rising in our last two surveys, the Current Sentiment Index declined five points to +53 this week (Figure 1). While down, Sentiment is one point higher than a month ago and has recovered 27 points from the October 2025 low of +26. This time last year, Sentiment was +49, and throughout 2025 it averaged +41.
Future Sentiment
Future Sentiment ticked five points lower to +59, previously in a three-way tie for the highest rate recorded since February 2025 (Figure 2). Future Sentiment was slightly stronger one year ago at +67. In 2025, it averaged +55, rising as high as +68 in January and falling as low as +46 in May.
What respondents are saying:
“Excellent, we have a lot of lower cost inventory… but so do others.”
“We’ll do well even though we’ve got a few holes in our inventory.”
“Good in the future as interest rates drop and more jobs start.”
“Margins will shrink as our inventory costs go up, but we always do relatively well.”
“Section 232 tariffs are impacting our US sales and will continue to hurt us as long as they remain in place.”
Sentiment trends
To better highlight trends, Sentiment indices can be analyzed on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis to smooth out short-term swings.
The Current Sentiment 3MMA increased this week for the seventh survey in a row to +47.59. This is the highest 3MMA witnessed since May 2025 (Figure 3, left). Compare this to the five-year low of +32.09 recorded last October.
The Future Sentiment 3MMA increased for the eighth consecutive survey to a nine-month high of +59.93 (Figure 3, right). For reference, this index bottomed out last June at a near-five-year low of +50.11.
About the SMU Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index
The SMU Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index measures the attitude of buyers and sellers of flat-rolled steel products in North America. It is a proprietary product developed by Steel Market Update for the North American steel industry. Tracking steel buyers’ sentiment is helpful in predicting their future behavior. View our methodology here. If you would like to participate in our survey, please contact us at smu@crugroup.com.
