Analysis
February 12, 2026
Written by Laura Miller
Hot-rolled coil hovering near $970 per ton could push toward $1,000, but Timna Tanners cautioned at the Tampa Steel Conference that anything “much above that” becomes difficult to sustain.
This October, SMU is introducing a new way to keep you informed on the latest steel market news and insights: the Daily Digest. Beginning in mid-October, our new Daily Digest will replace the three newsletters currently delivered each week.
The scrap market for October is looking for direction as some participants on both sides of the furnace are indicating scrap prices are poised for an increase.
SMU’s latest Flat-Rolled Steel Buyers Survey shows that in a tight US market marked by long lead times, low inventories, and rising prices, foreign products continue to gain the interest of domestic buyers.
Domestic raw steel output fell to a six-month low last week after hitting a multi-year high one week earlier, according to the latest American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) figures.
The domestic plate market is showing few signs of relief for steel buyers. Lead times are stretching well beyond seasonal norms, spot availability has all but evaporated, and mills are drawing hard lines on contract volumes heading into 2027 negotiations. And the supply squeeze will likely intensify in a market that some industry sources say is structurally undersupplied because of stringent US trade and tariff policies. Imports have been arriving in larger volumes, and the expectation is they will continue to tick higher into 2027. The big question is whether those foreign tons will arrive in volumes sufficient to provide the relief steel consumers want.