Market Data
February 15, 2026
Heating and cooling equipment shipments rebound through December
Written by Brett Linton
Following November’s nine-year low, heating and cooling equipment shipments rebounded 19% in December, according to the latest figures released by the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). Historically, shipments are strongest in the early summer months and weakest around the turn of the year because they are impacted by seasonal air conditioner and heat pump volumes.
December shipments recovered to a four-month high of 1.58 million units, 2% higher than the same month one year prior (Figure 1, left). Shipments of water heaters, warm-air furnaces, and air conditioners/heat pumps all increased month over month (m/m), an across-the-board rise not seen since March 2025.
Shipments can be annualized using a 12-month moving average (12MMA) to smooth out seasonal movements. On this basis, shipments peaked in May 2025, when the 12MMA reached a two-and-a-half-year high of 1.89 million units. That rate trended lower through November to a five-year low of 1.71 million units. It held steady through December (Figure 1, right).
Shipments by product
- Shipments of water heaters jumped 28% m/m in December to a nine-month high of 901,000 units, up 17% year over year (y/y).
- Warm-air furnace shipments increased 12% from November’s 19-month low to 271,000 units, identical to the same month of last year.
- Shipments of air conditioners and heat pumps rebounded 8% m/m to 408,000 units, the first monthly increase seen since May. Recall that in the previous month, shipments dipped to a ten-year low of 379,000 units. December shipments are down 21% y/y, marking the eighth consecutive month of negative annual growth. Note that these shipments are highly seasonal, as shown in Figure 2.
Annual comparisons
Figure 3 shows the annual growth rate of shipments by product on a 12MMA basis. From this angle, annualized warm-air furnace shipments remain strong, water heater shipments are relatively flat, and air conditioners/heat pumps shipments are down:
- Annual warm-air furnace shipments experienced the largest gain, with the December 12MMA up 4% versus the same period one year prior. While this marked the 14th straight month of annual gains, growth has been shrinking over the last seven months.
- Water heater shipments saw annual gains for the first time in 10 months, rising 1% y/y. This rate has trended steadily lower since peaking in mid‑2024.
- Annualized air conditioner and heat pump shipments were down 20% y/y, the fourth consecutive month to see negative growth. This now marks the largest annual contraction rate in our 16-year data history.
