SMU Survey: Sheet and plate lead times inch higher

Steel mill lead times marginally extended on both sheet and plate products this week, according to buyers responding to our latest market survey. Hot rolled and galvanized lead times are about half a week longer than they were three months ago, while production times for cold rolled, Galvalume, and plate products are one to two weeks longer.

The average production time for hot-rolled coil is just under six weeks. Cold rolled and coated products are in the seven-week range. Plate is at six and a half weeks.

Table 1 summarizes current lead times and recent changes by product (click to expand)

Compared to our previous market check, all of our sheet lead-time ranges have shifted in some form this week.

The shortest hot rolled lead time we considered declined from five weeks to four, and the longest lead time considered increased from seven weeks to eight.
The longest cold rolled lead time considered increased from nine weeks to 10.
The shortest galvanized lead time considered increased from five weeks to six, and the longest lead time considered increased from nine weeks to 10.
The longest Galvalume lead time considered increased from nine weeks to 10.
The shortest plate lead time considered increased from five weeks to six.

Buyers expect stability

The majority of buyers (66%) believe lead times will remain flat two months from now, similar to our previous survey. Of the remainder, 21% expect lead times to extend from here (up from 13% in early February) and just 13% foresee contractions (down from 19%).

Here are some of the comments we collected:

“Contracting – even with some spring outages getting on the docket, we expect the domestics to come back to reality a little.”

“Extending as demand improve.”

“Contracting, lead times are already fragile.”

“Extending due to the initial surge of data centers.”

“I believe they will start to contract prior to flattening.”

Trends

To highlight broader trends, lead times can be calculated on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis (Figure 2). Each of our sheet and plate 3MMAs extended further this week, a gradual upwards trend witnessed since November. Sheet 3MMA lead times remain about one week longer than the two-year lows we saw last September, and the plate is about a week and a half longer than year-ago levels.

Average lead times by product across the past three months were: hot rolled at 5.7 weeks, cold rolled and galvanized at 7.1 weeks, Galvalume at 7.4 weeks, and plate at 5.7 weeks.

Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers participating in this week’s SMU market trends analysis survey. SMU measures lead times as the time it takes from when an order is placed with the mill to when it is processed and ready for shipping, not including delivery time to the buyer. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Consult your mill rep for actual lead times. Premium members can view an interactive history of our steel mill lead times data on our website. If you’d like to participate in our surveys, contact smu@crugroup.com.

Brett Linton

Brett Linton is a digital operations analyst for Steel Market Update, where he began his career. Linton has been in the steel industry since 2010. He has held roles as a category manager and strategic insights director at Reibus before returning to SMU in 2024. He is a graduate of The University of North Georgia with a degree in Finance and Accounting. Brett can be reached at brett@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-314-0179.