Steel exports tumble further in December, lowest since 2020

Total US steel exports declined by almost 100,000 short tons (st) from November to December, the lowest monthly rate recorded in over five years, according to recent data released by the US Department of Commerce. Trade for many of the sheet and plate products we follow has fallen to multi-year lows through December.

The volume of steel shipped outside of the country totaled 469,000 st in December, the lowest measure seen since June 2020. Exports have trended lower since late 2024. December trade was 25% below the average export rate seen across the previous year (629,000 st per month), and 23% less than the same month of 2024.

Over 90% of our exports are shipped to United-States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trading partners. In December, Mexico received 58% of total US exports and 35% went to Canada. Other notable destinations (each accounting for 1% or less of trade) included Brazil, India, China, South Korea, Vietnam, the Bahamas, Italy, the United Kingdom, Japan, and Thailand. To explore more detailed export data on specific products or countries, visit the International Trade Administration’s Steel Mill Export Monitor.

Monthly fluctuations can be dampened by analyzing exports on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis (Figure 2, left). From this perspective, exports have trended lower following the July 2023 five-year high of 887,000 st. Through December, the 3MMA fell for the second consecutive month to a five-year low of 564,000 st, 16% less than the same time frame of 2024.

To eliminate seasonal variations, exports can be annualized on a 12-month moving average (12MMA) basis (Figure 2, right). From this view, exports have weakened since peaking in early 2024 but remain above 2019-21 levels. The 12MMA declined in December for the 11th month in a row to 629,000 st, the lowest it has been since April 2021.

Exports down across all products

Five of the six flat-rolled steel products we follow saw month-on-month (m/m) declines in December. Many products were at or nearing historical lows, and all are significantly lower than year-ago levels. Notable product shifts from November to December include:

Plate-cut-length exports rebounded 15%, previously at the lowest rate recorded in our 15-year data history.
Coiled plate exports declined 36%, just 1,000 st above the three-year low set in September.
Hot-rolled exports declined 22% to the lowest rate seen in the over five years.
Cold-rolled exports fell 37% to a three-year low.
Galvanized exports decreased 27% to lows last seen in mid-2020.
Other-metallic coated (mostly Galvalume) exports decreased 19% to a five-year low.

SMU members can view historical steel trade data on the Steel Exports page of our website.

Brett Linton

Brett Linton is a digital operations analyst for Steel Market Update, where he began his career. Linton has been in the steel industry since 2010. He has held roles as a category manager and strategic insights director at Reibus before returning to SMU in 2024. He is a graduate of The University of North Georgia with a degree in Finance and Accounting. Brett can be reached at brett@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-314-0179.