Tampa Steel Conference: Spoores says prepare for a bullish 2027 steel market  

The CRU research principal’s presentation highlighted the relationship between when domestic price slips in H2’25 reduced the attractiveness of foreign steel imports.

“The expectation was that as domestic prices pick up, we’re going to see more orders go to Canada and then their price should pick up, and that’s really what happened there. Their price did pick up,” he said.  

Adding, “But we’ve seen a pretty conscious effort for Canadian mills to stop with contracts for this year and slow down imports. Imports are still coming in. I checked this morning, it looked like, we’re still getting some in, but it’s half the level as it was a year ago.”  

On volatility in 2026  

Spoores explained that at the end of 2025, imports dropped over 50% y/y. The decrease removed ~4.2 million metric tons on an annualized basis, which tightened the sheet market.  

“Essentially, we’re getting people reporting $1,000 [per metric ton], or just over $1,000 to us, with a nice range of prices. But imports are attractive,” he said.  

The domestic price rebound kicking off 2026 makes imported steel a workable option for buyers. These consumers began reallocating volumes to foreign producers due to suboptimal domestic lead times and price spreads. Conditions that invite price pullbacks for a few months as imports arrive, and new domestic supplies trickle into the domestic market. Over the medium term, CRU expects rising domestic capacity to take market share from imports, but seasonal swings and trade economics will continue to drive volatility. 

“I’m getting a lot of bullish sentiments here. We’re hearing that most mills are making money; service centers, I haven’t heard any consistent view on that yet. Some are still fighting with competitive issues,” he said, adding, “But for buyers, imports have become attractive. It seems to start with galvanized and cold-rolled. And now hot-rolled, I am hearing, is starting to become attractive.”

Spoores expects domestic production to continue increasing faster than demand in 2026. This, he explained, increases downside risk later in the year as the current tightness eases. New sheet capacity is ramping up through 2028, increasing by ~8.5 million metric tons from 2023 levels.

Multiple mills report stronger shipping plans this year, and Big River 2 is slated to reach full output.

“The US sheet market will be structurally volatile over the next few years,” Spoores said, pointing to short bouts of surplus or deficit driven by timing mismatches between orders, arrivals and production.  

In addition, Spoores found limited growth across the manufacturing, construction, and automotive sectors in 2026. But he showed visibly stronger growth emerging from 2027 across all three key sheet end-use sectors.  

Hot takes

Producers, distributors, and end users should use 2026 to position strategically for the expected upturn in 2027, Spoores said.

Domestically produced sheet prices continue to post higher y/y averages in 2026. Simultaneously, the forecast suggests the market will remain prone to sharp swings as imports return, and new capacity expands supply.  

In 2027, the market can expect elevated levels of sustained end-user steel demand. As robust domestic steel product availability returns, lead times normalize, and domestic prices become attractive once more, foreign imports lose their luster once again. Price volatility will simmer in tandem.

Geopolitical dynamics and domestic policies remain uncertain factors that constantly reshape the steel industry’s landscape, Spoores contended.  

“We’ve seen a chaos strategy which has been bombarding noise into the overall market, directly affecting the steel market. I think the point on this, strategically, is just ignore as much as you can. Understand that other things happening behind closed doors may be more important to focus on than the actual noise generated,” Spoores said. 

Despite plate prices having room to move higher, the analyses suggest prices will remain below last year’s peaks. Meanwhile, rebar price dips may come and go, with the product ending the year broadly in line with HR. Risks to the forecast include temporary supply-demand imbalances, stronger-than-expected reshoring, changes to Section 232 tariffs, and weaker-than-expected demand growth.