Analysis
February 27, 2026
Sheet prices and demand tick upward
Written by Kristen DiLandro
Sources in the domestic hot- and cold-rolled coil markets said they are beginning to feel prices creeping up this week.
SMU’s weekly price assessment
On Tuesday, SMU assessed hot-rolled sheet prices on the spot market at an average of $980 per short ton (st), with transaction prices ranging from $960-$1,000/st. Cold rolled coil prices ranged from $1,110-1,160/st, and the average CR spot price was $1,135/st.
Market input
A service center associate in Pennsylvania said his business was stronger this week compared to recent weeks. He expects to see prices decline after peaking to $1,000/st.
“It’s been a busy last week of February, so I hope this continues into March. HRC is definitely moving up each week very slowly. No one I speak with understands why,” he said.
The associate added, “Auto, AG and construction is level at best and besides data centers, what is really pushing the number? There’s only one domestic supplier with out-of-whack lead times and that’s because they can’t get slab and substrate.”
The same associate is hopeful prices hold but thinks imports will begin to make their way back to the US market.
“I think imports are going to start looking more appealing, which will bring these hikes to a halt,” he said. “I think the price of steel will peak soon and start its descent into the basement, possibly repeating what we saw in 2025 and 2024.”
Mill source says
One source from a domestic mill said demand was diversified and that volume was high and prices were on the highest end of SMU’s range.
“We’re seeing more consistent demand increases from certain industries such as industrial equipment. Other HR demand areas also picked up, not just in inquiries, but firm orders,” said the mill source.
He commented that transaction prices on spot orders were increasing, noting, “We sold HR last week at over $1,000/st base for more volume than most weeks and are quickly running out of April HR space. CRC prices are at $1,180 and lead times in May.”
CRU’s forecast
CRU Research Principal Josh Spoores, along with his team of analysts, expect prices will be volatile this year. Presenting at SMU’s Tampa Steel Conference, he found that hot-rolled imports were likely to look attractive to buyers again, just as the first service center source explained.
“For buyers, imports have become attractive. It seems to start with galvanized and cold-rolled,” he said. “And now hot-rolled, I am hearing, is starting to become attractive.”
Eyes on imports
SMU’s theoretical price spread for HR imported vs. domestic products article this week notes, “In dollar-per-ton terms, US product is on average $49/st less than landed import prices (inclusive of the 50% tariff), down just $1 from a $50/st spread last week.”
Domestic HR remains more competitive to US buyers at present, but if availability becomes limited before additional capacity goes live, buyers may consider importing steel products again.
