Market Data
February 27, 2026
US apparent steel supply recovers in December but remains low
Written by Brett Linton
The amount of finished steel that entered the US market in December recovered 7% from the near five-year low recorded one month prior, according to SMU’s analysis of recently released Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data. Dubbed apparent steel supply, this measure is calculated by combining domestic mill shipments and finished US steel imports, then subtracting total US exports.
December supply increased by 548,000 short tons (st) from November to 8.16 million st, the third-lowest monthly rate of 2025 (Figure 1). This comes one month after supply fell to 7.61 million st, the lowest measure recorded since February 2021. The December recovery was primarily driven by an increase in domestic mill shipments, coupled with a rise in finished imports and a slowdown in exports.
This brings the average supply rate of 2025 to 8.52 million st per month, up from 8.33 million st in 2024, and up from 8.48 million st in 2023. For comparison, the highest monthly measure recorded in our 15-year data history was 10.90 million st in 2014, and the lowest was 6.52 million st in 2020.
Trends
To better highlight trends and smooth out monthly fluctuations, supply can be calculated on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis, as shown in Figure 2. From this perspective, supply fell to a four-year low of 7.99 million st in November 2024, then recovered to a near three-year high of 8.82 million st by July 2025. The 3MMA declined for the fifth consecutive month in December to 8.05 million st, a 13-month low and one of the lower rates witnessed in recent years.
Figure 3 shows the individual components of apparent supply and their changes from November to December:
- Domestic shipments recovered 381,000 st m/m (5%) to 7.45 million st, accounting for 91% of total supply.
- Finished steel imports increased 74,000 st (7%) to 1.17 million st, previously at a 16-year low. The latest license data shows a potential 4% rise in January.
- Steel exports declined 94,000 st (17%) to a five-year low of 469,000 st.
- Net imports (finished imports minus exports) made up 9% of December’s supply. This is on the low side compared to recent years (it averaged 11% in 2025 and 12% over the past three years).
To see an interactive graphic of our apparent steel supply history, click here. If you need any assistance logging into or navigating the website, contact us at smu@crugroup.com.
