SMU Survey: Sheet and plate lead times hold at high levels

Following extensions in February, steel mill lead times held steady or extended further for both sheet and plate products this week, according to buyers responding to our latest market survey.

Most sheet lead times are longer than they were three months ago. The same is true for plate.

The average production time for hot-rolled coil remains just under six weeks. Cold rolled and coated products are in the seven- to eight-week range. Plate is just under six and a half weeks.

Table 1 summarizes current lead times and recent changes by product (click to expand)

Compared to our previous market check, four of our lead-time ranges saw minor shifts this week:

The longest hot rolled lead time we considered increased from eight weeks to nine.
The shortest cold rolled, Galvalume, and plate lead time considered decreased from six weeks to five.

Buyers expect stability

Over half buyers (60%) believe lead times will remain flat two months from now, similar to recent surveys. The remainder is split, with 21% expecting lead times to extend from here and 19% foreseeing contractions.

Here are some of the comments we collected:

“Flat. Demand is no longer driving this market.”

“Flat. Mills are behind now.”

“Flat. Lead times in Canada are normal.”

“Lead times will move to flat and then contract starting May/June.”

“Contracting. Without demand, oversupply will be an issue.”

“Contracting. I think demand is already built into the current extended lead times and things will calm down.”

“Contracting. We expect a spring/summer reversal in both domestic pricing and lead times (as a result of imports coming back in).”

“Contracting. I think we will see some relief in the summer months, but minimal.”

Trends

Lead times can be calculated on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis to better highlight trends, as shown in Figure 2. Each of our sheet and plate 3MMAs extended yet again this week, a trend we have seen for the past five months. Sheet 3MMA lead times remain about a week and a half longer than the two-year lows we saw last September, and are roughly half a week longer than levels seen this time last year. The latest plate 3MMA is half a week longer than it was six months ago, and a week and a half below year-ago levels.

Average lead times by product across the past three months were: hot rolled at 5.8 weeks, cold rolled at 7.3 weeks, galvanized at 7.2 weeks, Galvalume at 7.6 weeks, and plate at 5.9 weeks.

Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers participating in this week’s SMU market trends analysis survey. SMU measures lead times as the time it takes from when an order is placed with the mill to when it is processed and ready for shipping, not including delivery time to the buyer. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Consult your mill rep for actual lead times. Premium members can view an interactive history of our steel mill lead times data on our website. If you’d like to participate in our surveys, contact smu@crugroup.com.

Brett Linton

Brett Linton is a digital operations analyst for Steel Market Update, where he began his career. Linton has been in the steel industry since 2010. He has held roles as a category manager and strategic insights director at Reibus before returning to SMU in 2024. He is a graduate of The University of North Georgia with a degree in Finance and Accounting. Brett can be reached at brett@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-314-0179.