Canada
March 17, 2026
Steel exports recover in January, still historically weak
Written by Brett Linton
Following the five-year low witnessed in December, US steel exports jumped 33% in January, according to recently released US Department of Commerce data. Although up, export volumes remain historically low, having trended lower since late 2024.
The volume of steel shipped outside of the country totaled 623,000 short tons (st) in January. Recall that one month before this, exports had fallen to 469,000 st, the lowest rate seen since June 2020. January trade was 1% below the average export rate of 2025 (629,000 st per month) and 20% below the same month one year prior.
Over 90% of our exports are shipped to United-States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trading partners. In January, Mexico received 58% of total US exports and 37% went to Canada. Other notable destinations (each accounting for 1% or less of trade) included China, Belgium, the United Arab Emirates, India, the United Kingdom, South Korea, the Bahamas, Vietnam, Colombia, and Peru. To explore more detailed export data on specific products or countries, visit the International Trade Administration’s Steel Mill Export Monitor.
Trends
Exports can be analyzed on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis to dampen monthly fluctuations (Figure 2, left). From this viewpoint, exports have trended lower for nearly two years. Through January, the 3MMA fell for the third consecutive month to a five-year low of 552,000 st, 20% less than the same time frame one year prior.
To eliminate seasonal variations, exports can be annualized on a 12-month moving average (12MMA) basis (Figure 2, right). From this perspective, exports have weakened since peaking in early 2024 and are closing in on the low levels seen from 2019-2021. The 12MMA declined in January for the 12th month in a row to 616,000 st, the lowest it has been since March 2021.
Exports down across all products
All six of the flat-rolled steel products we follow increased from December to January, with many recovering from historical lows. Most remain significantly lower than year-ago levels. Notable product shifts from December to January include:
- Plate-cut-length exports increased 14% to a four-month high. Recall that just two months prior, trade fell to the lowest rate recorded in our 15-year data history.
- Coiled plate exports rebounded 65% to the highest monthly rate seen in one year.
- Hot-rolled exports rose 42% to a five-month high, recovering from a five-year low.
- Cold-rolled increased 68% to a three-month high, previously at a three-year low.
- Galvanized exports jumped 47%, previously at one of the lowest rates seen since 2020.
- Other-metallic coated (mostly Galvalume) exports increased 41%, moving from a five-year low to a six-month high.
SMU members can access historical trade figures on the Steel Exports page of our website.
