Analysis
March 19, 2026
Sheet prices reflect tighter supply, sources flag mill utilization rates
Written by Kristen DiLandro
As spot prices for hot- and cold-rolled coils edge higher, mill capacity utilization rates hover below 80%, raising concern among some market participants.
In its weekly assessment of raw steel production data issued March 16, the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) found domestic mill production declined to 1.8 million short tons (st) for the week ending March 13. Mill production dipped for the third week in a row.
In addition, the three-month moving average (3MMA) of apparent supply for January dropped for the sixth consecutive month to 8.00 million st, a 14-month low; marginally above the four-year low of 7.99 million st set in November 2024.
Market participants said low mill utilization rates will make importing foreign steel necessary.
Market commentary
An Ohio-based service center source said supply constraints from lower mill utilization and the absence of foreign steel in the US market raised prices and pushed out lead times, which is problematic for buyers like him.
“Inquiries from our customers are up a little bit, but it’s day to day, it changes. Yes, supply is tightening, but production is still only at about 75-76%. That’s one way to strengthen the price,” he said.
One source on the West Coast postponed a buy last week and has received quotes from mills located abroad. He noted timelines and pricing make importing steel more attractive, even with tariff costs.
A Midwestern service center executive said his business became more bullish this quarter. He thinks the crisis in Iran could constrain mill supply if US national security needs require more steel.
“I would guess the mills are using the ‘black swan’ Iranian situation as a reason to keep pricing going up. But part may be more steel usage by consumers. Our business has been robust so far in Q1,” he stated.
A mill source, also located in the Midwest, said business remained average for the week.
“Transaction sizes pretty normal, not small or not large,” he said.
Prices
The same Midwest-based mill source also noted, “We have been selling HRC at $1,010-$1,020 per short ton (st) and CRC right around $1,200/st base price.”
In SMU’s weekly price assessment on Tuesday, HR prices ranged from $1,000 to $1,030/st. The weekly average for spot price transactions was $1,015/st, ~7% higher than the average spot price during the equivalent week of 2025, when the price was $950/st.
CR prices ranged from $1,140 to $ 1,200/st, averaging $1,170/st. This week’s price is up 4% compared to the average spot price for the equivalent week of 2025, when CR transaction averages were $1,125/st.
Use the SMU Interactive Pricing Tool to compare pricing data across products.
All prices are ex-works, domestic, unless otherwise noted.
