Market Data
July 10, 2026
SMU Survey: Continued optimism in Buyer Sentiment Indices
Written by Brett Linton
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices were once again strongly optimistic this week, based on responses collected from steel executives in our latest market survey. Both indices show that steel buyers remain confident in their companies’ prospects both today and in the coming months.
Our Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index eased one point but remains strong, still within a few points of a multi-year high. Meanwhile, our Future Buyers’ Sentiment Index inched up two points to the highest reading seen since late 2024.
Every other week, SMU polls thousands of steel industry executives asking them to rate their companies’ chances of success today and three to six months down the road. These responses are used to calculate our proprietary Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices, measures we have tracked since 2008.
Current Sentiment
Current Sentiment slipped to +64 this week, marginally lower than the strong measures seen in recent months (Figure 1). Although down, it is only nine points below the three-year high of +73 set back in April. One year ago, Current Sentiment was significantly lower at +33.
Future Sentiment
Future Sentiment ticked up this week to an 18-month high of +71 (Figure 2). This measure has strengthened in recent months, declining only twice over the past 10 surveys. This time last year Future Sentiment was slightly lower at +58.
What respondents are saying:
“[Excellent current outlook and good future outlook] These are relatively ideal conditions for those who have inventory to sell and we have some, perhaps more than others, to sell. Obviously, margins will go down as this upward trajectory of pricing reverses, but we always seem to make the most of the situation or prepare for such times.”
“[Good current and future outlooks] The backlog is strong and most of our steel is already bought. I’d love to see HRC back below $1,000/ton but that is purely wishful thinking right now.”
“[Good current and future outlooks] No branding for my end users, so great pressure to sell at a low price.”
“[Good current and future outlooks] We like the domestic focus, it brings more steel to store at our facility.”
“[Good current and future outlooks] It is very difficult to find the sizes we need on the mill excess coil lists.”
“[Fair current outlook and good future outlook] I believe our company has a good chance of success. We are still on track to deliver a stronger Q2 than Q1, although competition in long products remains challenging. I expect our chances of success to improve over the next three to six months, supported by stronger demand, firm steel prices, and continued strength in the flat products market.”
“[Fair current and future outlooks] Just need to find competitive supply to cover demand.”
“[Fair current and future outlooks] Mexico’s conditions are different than those in the US.”
Sentiment trends
Sentiment Indices can be analyzed using a three-month moving average (3MMA) to better highlight trends and dampen short-term noise. From this basis, both Sentiment Indices are at or near some of the highest levels seen in over a year.
After increasing for 17 surveys in a row to reach a three-year high of +68.61, the Current Sentiment 3MMA marginally eased to +67.68 this week (Figure 3, left). The Future Sentiment 3MMA increased for the eighth consecutive survey to a 17-month high of +67.23 (Figure 3, right).
About the SMU Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index
The SMU Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index measures the attitude of buyers and sellers of flat-rolled steel products in North America. It is a proprietary product developed by Steel Market Update for the North American steel industry. Tracking steel buyers’ sentiment is helpful in predicting their future behavior. View our methodology here. If you would like to be included in our market surveys, please contact us at smu@crugroup.com.
