Steel market chatter this week

Before diving in, we read through each of the responses collected and found these key takeaways:

• Most buyers expect prices to continue rising over the next three months. A small number believe the market is nearing a peak.
• Demand is said to be healthy, with most respondents reporting stable or improving conditions.
• Inventories are moving at a similar or faster pace than a year ago, although some respondents report slower turnover.
• Most believe tariff policies are not helping their businesses, and few have seen evidence of tariffs driving manufacturing reshoring, similar to recent surveys.
• Imports remain attractive for many buyers due to pricing and availability, while some are concerned about quota and lead-time risks.

Want to share your thoughts? Contact david@steelmarketupdate.com to be included in our market questionnaires.

How do you expect prices to trend over the next three months?

“I expect prices to continue to move up into next year at a slightly slower pace than they have been. With inventories low and lead times out a ways, I feel the only thing to stop the increases will be imports or pricing getting to the point that demand slows.”

“Prices to remain at historical highs. Will they ‘top out’ as some are forecasting?  Who knows exactly when. They cannot increase forever but this year will see strong high prices longer than normal cycles.”

“Continued slow and steady increases, demand is there.”

“Prices will continue to climb. Strong order book at the mill and limited imports.”

“Upwards as long as there’s a war to blame them on.”

“Strong due to data centers, military spending, and the border wall.”

“I think we’re going to keep going up with these $5-$10/ton hikes for a few more months. I think we’ll start to see things quiet down and reverse though heading into ’27.”

“We’re seeing a consistently upward trend in domestic steel pricing for the next 2-3 months.”

“Stable to up, seems like pricing is close to a peak.”

“Pricing will peak in September due to price increases making demand slow.”

“Continue to rise slowly for another month or two.”

Is demand improving, declining or stable?

“Demand is pretty darn good. I would say stable to improving. We’ll take it!”

“Improving on short supply.”

“Demand is strong and improving in key industries like energy, data centers, automotive, etc. There is a lack of import supply due to trade barriers. Domestic supply issues are limiting on-time delivery.”

“Slight improvement.”

“Stable but higher pricing will slow demand in Q4.”

“Stable, customers would love to buy more but availability remains limited.”

“Stable to slightly declining.”

“Perhaps it’s just a summer lull, maybe prices have gotten too high, but I’ve seen a slowing in quotes and especially a slowing in our orders.”

Is inventory moving faster or slower than this time last year?

“Inventory is moving fast this year versus the prior year because inventories are so low.”

“Inventory is moving a bit faster, but we’re certainly stocking less (on purpose).”

“Faster due to quota requirements.”

“Faster due to low inventories.”

“About the same.”

“Our inventory seems to currently be moving a little slower than last year at this time, but that may be due to the fact that our inventory is lower than it was at this time last year.”

“Slightly slower we feel due to prices and interest rates.”

Are President Trump’s tariff policies helping your business?

Half of the buyers responding to this question feel their businesses are not benefiting from tariffs. Of the remainder, 28% are unsure how the policies will impact their business, and only 22% believe that the tariffs are helping. Comments included:

“No, they are terrible and creating artificially high costs for everyone. Many well-run domestic mills are making record profits, others not some much of a loss. But overall WE ALL ARE PAYING FOR IT with higher costs for everything steel goes into. Mills are making record profits off of hard-working Americans. We are taxing ourselves with tariffs.”

“No, tariffs are giving domestic mills too much power to continue pushing prices up and it is slowing our business.”

“No, it is just noise! Bad for business and making steel pricing skyrocket!”

“No, they are pushing steel prices up and affecting our margins.”

“Yes, inventory values are stable and imports are not disrupting the market.”

“Yes, I go back and forth on this issue, but there’s no doubt that business this year is better than it was last year.”

Are you seeing evidence of manufacturing reshoring to the US because of Trump’s tariffs?

Almost half of respondents (44%) said it is too early to tell, similar to recent surveys. Of the remainder, 33% reported they are not seeing any signs of reshoring, while 22% answered they have seen some evidence. Comments included:

“Too early to say, I’m hearing about reshoring but not so much from my customers. I’m reading about it in the media more than I’m aware of it in my customer base.”

“Too early to say. A lot of announcements, but no demand just yet.”

“Too early to say, but we have had conversations.”

“No, I don’t think we’ll see shovel-ready projects anytime soon – outside of data center spends, of course.”

“No, all talk so far.”

“Yes, due to quotas more demand into the domestic market is happening.”

Are imports more attractive than domestic material?

“Yes, imports are attractive not only because they’re cheaper than domestic steel, but because they have material to offer.”

“Imports are very attractive and if you have the means, you’ve already got some on order. I think that’ll continue well into 2027, which will ultimately lead to domestic lead times shrinking and pricing eroding.”

“Imports can be price attractive among most products. Longer lead times are a risk for some.”

“Imports are always more attractively priced.”

“We’re starting to turn to foreign mills/options that we rarely turn to, or have never turned to before.”

“On light gauge painted.”

“Customers are more interested, but still hesitant to make long-term commitments.”

“Due to tariffs and quotas, pricing is better but availability has more risk.”

“More attractive.”

“Not attractive due to most customers requiring domestic products.”

What’s something that’s going on in the market that nobody is talking about?

“The other side of these escalating prices. What fallout will there be when prices start to drop?”

“Will the USW union negotiations create any disruptions or delays in supply?”

“Coming off of the blown “JV” with Maruichi and Atlas, will we see another try at consolidation in that arena?”

“Pig iron costs and availability.”

“The spread between steel busheling price and steel price continues to grow.”

“War machine needs steel.”

“AI facilities consumption of steel and utilities.”