Market Data
August 20, 2026
SMU Survey: Mill lead times remain historically long
Written by Brett Linton
Steel mill lead times remained extended on both sheet and plate products this week, according to buyers responding to our latest market survey. Production times have been historically long for most of the summer, remaining at or near multi-year highs across all of the products we track.
Lead times by product
- The average hot-rolled coil production time is just over seven and a half weeks, marginally below the near five-year high seen in mid-July.
- Cold rolled lead times eased to just under nine weeks, half a week below the four-year high recorded in June.
- Galvanized lead times held at just under nine weeks, roughly one day below the two-and-a-half-year high rate witnessed in July.
- Galvalume production times inched up to just under nine weeks, the longest rate witnessed since late 2023.
- Plate lead times held at just over nine weeks, still the longest rate recorded since September 2021.
Table 1 summarizes current lead times and recent changes by product (click to expand).
Compared to our previous market check, our lead-time ranges shifted this week for all products other than hot rolled:
- The shortest cold rolled lead time we considered increased from six weeks to seven, and the longest decreased from 13 weeks to 12.
- The longest galvanized and Galvalume lead time decreased from 13 weeks to 12.
- The shortest plate lead time increased from five weeks to seven.
Buyers expect future stability
Nearly two-thirds of the buyers responding to this week’s survey (62%) believe lead times will be flat two months from now, similar to recent surveys. Of the remainder, 21% predict lead times will extend further, and 17% expect contractions. Comments included:
“Flat – Demand is OK, but I don’t think it is enough to extend the already extended lead times.”
“Lead times remain flat for long products, while flat products are extending due to strong demand in Mexico.”
“Extending as plant shutdowns will get mills further behind.”
“I’m a little surprised that this strong market has lasted this long. But won’t increased quantities of foreign steel start to slow down at least the price increases? Maybe take a bite out of the domestic mill’s business and lead times contract a bit?”
“If border wall construction wraps up, lead times could shorten. Hopefully, new demand keeps them stretched.”
“Contracting – Some mills are far behind now, but they will get caught up as the market slows.”
“Lead time should start to contract in late Q4 due to imports coming in, outages wrapping up, and domestic maintenances woes getting solved.”
Trends
To better highlight trends, lead times can be measured on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis. All of our 3MMA lead times inched higher this week, a continual trend seen for most of the past year (Figure 2).
Most sheet and plate 3MMA lead times are at highs not seen since late 2021 or early 2022. The outlier is Galvalume, which was last this high in early 2024.
Average lead times by product across the past three months were: hot rolled at 7.5 weeks, cold rolled at 8.8 weeks, galvanized at 8.7 weeks, Galvalume at 8.6 weeks, and plate at 8.3 weeks.
Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers participating in this week’s SMU market trends analysis survey. SMU measures lead times as the time it takes from when an order is placed with the mill to when it is processed and ready for shipping, not including delivery time to the buyer. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Consult your mill rep for actual lead times. Premium members can view an interactive history of our steel mill lead times data on our website. If you’d like to participate in our surveys, contact smu@crugroup.com.
