Analysis
September 1, 2026
September scrap prices could land sideways, sources say
Written by Stephen Miller
Ferrous scrap prices could be poised for a sideways move in September as supply and demand are seemingly in reasonable balance, sources told SMU. Still, flat prices are not guaranteed, as we have seen in prior months.
The US domestic scrap market for September is slated to form this week.
Sources weigh in
A mill source told SMU he does not see much change in prices for September. “Demand remains strong, but supply is ample,” he noted.
SMU spoke with a scrap trading source who said his mill customers are all saying the market will be sideways and there is little point in trying to drag obsolescent scrap prices down further. He went on to say any drop in prices will mean a stronger rebound in prices as the market approaches the seasonal strengthening at year-end.
Another source in the Midwest agrees. He said at least one of the larger nationwide steel mill buyers views the market as sideways. The source added that with the wide spread between scrap and finished steel, why disrupt the market?
A source in the Western Pennsylvania area said he sees the market changing very little. However, one of his sources was adamant that #1 Busheling will be up $10 per gross ton (gt). The remaining grades should trade sideways, with a slight chance of a correction, especially after a ~$20/gt decline on HMS in August. Despite this prediction, he is in the sideways camp.
Export market
Another factor supporting a sideways move in September is the export market. East Coast bulk exports have remained static with no price movement on either the sales side or the domestic dock price for HMS 80/20 and shredded scrap.
On a more cautious note, there are reportedly six scheduled outages at flat-roll mills in September. Most of these are not prolonged. There are other outages at long products mills as well. The effect on scrap demand is not entirely clear but is not projected by our sources to be very drastic.
SMU spoke with a scrap executive in the Southeast who said despite these mill outages and the lackluster export activity on the East Coast, mills in his region are leaning towards a sideways September. He anticipates settlements this week.
