SMU Survey: Mill lead times hold at extended levels

• The average production time for hot-rolled coil held at just over seven and a half weeks, a few days shy of the near-five-year high recorded in July.
• Cold rolled lead times increased to nine weeks, a fraction of a week below the four-year high set in June.
• Galvanized lead times are just over eight and a half weeks, slightly lower than the two-and-a-half-year high seen in July.
• Galvalume production times held at just under nine weeks, one of the longest rates witnessed since late 2023.
• Plate lead times increased to almost nine and a half weeks, now the longest rate recorded since September 2021.

Table 1 summarizes current lead times and recent changes by product (click to expand).

Compared to our previous market check, one of our lead-time ranges shifted this week; the longest hot rolled lead time we considered declined from 12 weeks to 11.

Buyers expect future stability

Over two-thirds of the buyers responding to this week’s survey (68%) believe lead times will be flat two months from now, similar to recent surveys. Of the remainder, 19% predict lead times will extend further, and 13% expect contractions. Comments included:

“Flat – Mills still have lots of tons to catch up on.”

“Flat – Maybe there will be a leveling off at the end of the year. I am getting mixed messages from vendors.”

“Mixed. Lead times remain flat for long products, while flat products are extending due to strong demand in Mexico.”

“They will be extending or remain extended.”

“Extending a bit as we’ll still be in the traditionally busy part of the year & I still don’t imagine that we’ll be getting a real high of foreign steel yet.”

“Contracting – More capacity coming online and more imports coming in. WATCH OUT!”

Trends

Lead times can be measured on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis to better highlight trends. All five of our 3MMA lead times inched higher this week, continuing a trend that has persisted across most of the past year (Figure 2).

Most sheet and plate 3MMA lead times are at highs not seen since late 2021 or early 2022. The outlier is Galvalume, which was last this high in early 2024.

Average lead times by product across the past three months were: hot rolled at 7.5 weeks, cold rolled at 8.9 weeks, galvanized at 8.8 weeks, Galvalume at 8.6 weeks, and plate at 8.6 weeks.

Note: These lead times are based on responses from manufacturers and steel service centers participating in this week’s SMU market trends analysis survey. SMU measures lead times as the time it takes from when an order is placed with the mill to when it is processed and ready for shipping, not including delivery time to the buyer. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Consult your mill rep for actual lead times. Premium members can view an interactive history of our steel mill lead times data on our website. If you’d like to participate in our surveys, contact smu@crugroup.com.