Steel exports remain weak through July

Following the 17-month high set in June, US steel exports receded 8% in July, according to recently released US Department of Commerce figures. Trade has been historically low for over a year and remains weak compared to 2022-24 volumes.

In July, 652,000 short tons (st) of steel were shipped outside of the country. This rate was 5% higher than the same month in 2025 and 4% higher than the average monthly export rate of the past 12 months. However, trade was down 20% compared to July 2024, 23% lower than July 2023, and 12% lower than July 2022.

For context, exports fell to a five-year low last December (469,000 st) and touched a near-five-year high in May 2023 (914,000 st).

Over 90% of our exports are shipped to United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trading partners. In July, Mexico received 63% of total US exports, while Canada received 31%. Other notable destinations (each accounting for less than 1% of trade) included China, Suriname, Brazil, Chile, India, Venezuela, the United Kingdom, and Israel. Visit the International Trade Administration’s Steel Mill Export Monitor to further explore export data by specific country or product.

Exports can be analyzed on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis to smooth short-term fluctuations and better highlight trends (Figure 2, left). From this perspective, exports began trending lower in late 2024 and dipped to a five-year low of 552,000 st in January of this year. Volumes recovered each through June to reach a 14-month high of 681,000 st, then eased in July to 676,000 st.

To eliminate seasonal variations, exports can be annualized on a 12-month moving average (12MMA) basis (Figure 2, right). From this view, trade has weakened following the early 2024 peak and is nearing lows last seen in 2019-21. The 12MMA recently declined to a five-year low of 607,000 st in March. It has marginally recovered each of the last four months, rising to 628,000 st through July.

Improvements in sheet and plate products

Exports for four of the six flat-rolled steel products we track declined from June to July. Most products have significantly recovered from the historical lows seen late last year, while half are higher than year-ago levels. Notable highlights include:

Plate-cut-length exports increased 7% month over month (m/m) to an 18-month high of 95,000 st, the fifth-consecutive month of increasing exports.
Coiled plate exports fell 31% m/m to 38,000 st, the lowest rate seen this year.
Hot-rolled exports declined 26% m/m to a seven-month low of 50,000 st, falling from the 17-month high of 68,000 st seen in June.
Cold-rolled exports decreased 17% m/m to 70,000 st, previously at a 20-month high of 84,000 st.
Galvanized exports eased 4% m/m to 117,000 st, holding near one of the higher rates recorded over the past year.
Other-metallic coated exports recovered 26% m/m to 15,000 st, the second-highest rate recorded in the last 12 months.

SMU members can access historical trade figures on the Steel Exports page of our website.

Brett Linton

Brett Linton is a digital operations analyst for Steel Market Update, where he began his career. Linton has been in the steel industry since 2010. He has held roles as a category manager and strategic insights director at Reibus before returning to SMU in 2024. He is a graduate of The University of North Georgia with a degree in Finance and Accounting. Brett can be reached at brett@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-314-0179.