Analysis
October 15, 2026
September service center shipments and inventories report
Written by David Schollaert
Flat rolled = 45.9 shipping days of supply
Plate = 40.5 shipping days of supply
Latest in Analysis
Ternium plans February start for new slab mill, sees Mexico prices rising
Ternium SA expects a modest seasonal decline in consolidated steel shipments in the fourth quarter, but sees Mexico revenue per ton continuing to rise with North American steel price trends. The outlook came as the company released its third-quarter earnings report and prepares to start steel shop production at its new Pesqueria slab mill in February. “We are seeing a strong demand in Mexico … strong demand in the US,” CEO Maximo Vedoya said on a conference call on Wednesday to discuss the quarterly earnings. Ternium reported Q3’26 net income of $368 million, compared with $465 million in Q2’26 and a $270-million loss in Q3’25. Net sales rose 7% sequentially and 17% year over year to $4.6 billion, while steel product shipments increased 5% quarter over quarter to just over 4 million metric tons.
Market chatter: Supply, not price, dominates steel buyers’ concerns
On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to tariffs, imports, and evolving market events. We are sharing a selection of the comments we received below, in each buyer’s own words. Before diving in, we reviewed all the responses collected and compiled these key takeaways: Respondents overwhelmingly anticipate further increases. Buyers cite limited supply, mill delays, low inventories, and steady-to-strong demand. Most say demand is generally stable to improving, with some purchasing driven by fears of higher prices or unavailable material rather than stronger underlying consumption. Most respondents report faster inventory turnover, while shortages are constraining sales and, in some cases, prompting customer allocations. Buyers increasingly see imports as a way to secure scarce material, though domestic-origin requirements, delivery timing, and pricing risks remain obstacles.
Sheet prices surge as ’26 market squeeze spills into ’27
Sheet prices soared this week as market participants increasingly predict that the strong market characterizing 2026 will stretch well into 2027. And with extremely limited spot availability, mills that have spot tons to sell are charging a significant premium, they said. The result: Sheet prices saw their highest week-over-week gains since March 2025, according to SMU's pricing records. That's when President Trump shocked the market by expanding Section 232 tariffs to cover traditional US allies such as Canada, Mexico, and the EU.
Ferrous scrap prices seen rising in November
Most SMU scrap sources are predicting a stronger scrap market for November. The increase in prices is generally thought be $20-30 per gross ton (gt) in most districts. However, there are differences of opinion about the upcoming price settlements. SMU spoke with a trading source in the Great Lakes region who told us mills in the Eastern Ohio and Western Pennsylvania regions are short on scrap. At least one buyer is offering to buy scrap at a $30/gt increase from October levels. He said most dealers have elected to wait to see where things settle before making commitments.
Metallus profit rises, but planned maintenance to weigh on Q4
Metallus reported improved year-over-year profitability in the third quarter, but expects seasonal softness and planned maintenance to weigh on fourth-quarter results. The specialty metals producer pointed to continued demand and a new defense contract as supports for growth.