The trucking industry’s top concerns were recently highlighted in an October 2014 survey by the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI). The ATRI report was based on the responses of 1,444 industry drivers, carriers and suppliers. Results show that Hours of Service (HOS) followed by Driver Shortage and Compliance, and Safety and Accountability (CSA) remain the […]
The October Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices was released on November 3rd. This survey addresses changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households on a quarterly basis and is based on the responses from 76 domestic banks and 22 U.S. branches and agencies […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their October report on November 2nd and the report surprised analysts on the upside. The October purchasing managers index, PMI registered 59.0 up from the 56.6 reading in September and equal to the August result. Any number >50 indicates expansion and this was the seventeenth straight month in which […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their October report on November 2nd and the report surprised analysts on the upside. The October purchasing managers index, PMI registered 59.0 up from the 56.6 reading in September and equal to the August result. Any number >50 indicates expansion and this was the seventeenth straight month in which […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of September 2014, providing updated data on iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in September were 84,695,000 metric tons, an increase of 13.1 percent from the previous month and an increase of 13.6 percent […]
Global manufacturing continued to expand for the 23rd successive month according to JP Morgan and Markit. The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI registered 52.2 in October, unchanged from September. “The global PMI continues to signal 3-4% annualized gains in manufacturing output as we head towards year-end,” said David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at […]
The states compile their employment numbers independently of the Feds then both are reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The results are close with the Feds reporting total job creation in Q3 of 671,000 and the states reporting 661,200. All regions had solid job creation in the 3rd Q led by the South Central […]
The Chicago Business Barometer surprised economists with jump to 66.2 from 60.5 in September, well above the forecast decline to 60.0. The reading on this month’s purchasing manager index was the highest since October 2013. The index average for third quarter was 59.1 but in the last three months the index has averaged 63.6—an indicator […]
Today’s hot rolled coil and ferrous scrap futures article is written by Bradley Clark, Director of Steel Trading at Kataman Metals. The market seems to have bottomed out with the CRU coming in at $640 yesterday. Positive sentiment has outweighed any negatives in the market with AK Steel recently announcing a price hike of $20/ton […]
The following is a “hypothetical” calculation of the spread between world hot rolled export prices and domestic (USA) hot rolled prices. SMU compares the world hot rolled export price with hypothetical adders for freight, handling, trader margin, etc. This is then compared to the spot (FOB Mill) domestic hot rolled price using the SMU Hot […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of Q3 2014 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Thursday. The annualized growth rate in the third quarter was 3.50 percent which was down from 4.51 percent in Q2 but still exceeded most analysts’ expectations. GDP is measured and reported in […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update. An explanation of the Index is provided at the end of this piece. Index Shows Economic Growth Picked up […]
The consumer confidence index as reported by the Conference Board bounced back in October and the dismal September results were revised upwards. The composite rose from 89.0 (first reported as 86.0) to 94.9, the view of the present situation rose from 93.0 (first reported as 89.4) to 93.7 as expectations rose from 86.4 (first reported […]
Durable goods orders unexpectedly fell 1.3 percent in September for a second consecutive monthly decline. The drop follows a tumble of 18.3 percent in August. Economists were forecasting a gain of 0.5 percent for September. The disappointing performance may lead economists to revise forecasts for the third quarter GDP scheduled for release on Thursday. Current […]
MID-SHIP Group reports that the two biggest factors impacting the dry cargo freight market right now are U.S. and South American agricultural products and Chinese imports and exports. Expectations for strong exports of agricultural products are high but not much has hit the export market yet. Iron ore imports into China have slowly started to […]
The metalforming industry is expecting little change in business conditions during the next three months according to the October 2014 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report. Firms surveyed predict that there will be a slight drop in incoming orders during the next three months. Average daily shipping levels improved, however, showed improvement. Only 7 […]
A note to our Premium members- our survey data will be published on the SMU website by 3 PM today. It can be accessed under the Analysis Tab through the Survey Results menu. We recently added a menu option within the Survey Results section to include a history of past survey results. If you need […]
Statistical data out of China is always questioned for a number of reasons, not least is, “Is the data politically motivated.” Other suspicions arise because China gets their data out faster than any other major economy and the data is never revised. Figure 1 shows published data for the growth of GDP, industrial production and […]
The following article comes from one of our contributing writers, Andre Marshall of Crunch Risk, LLC. Andre is a well known trader/broker in the hot rolled coil (HRC) and other commodities futures markets. He is also our instructor for the SMU Managing Price Risk I and II workshop series. Tonight Andre speaks to the financial […]
Paul Lowrey of Steel Research Associates was discussing the size of the market segments with SMU back in September during our Steel Summit Conference in Atlanta. He was making sure that we were aware that the energy markets are now the largest steel consuming segment of the steel industry, especially if you take into consideration […]
A proposal by Transport Canada may be devastating for U.S. cargo ships delivering raw materials on the Great Lakes. The proposal would require lakers to be equipped with ballast water treatment systems like their oceangoing sister ships. The water treatment systems are designed to eliminating invasive species from being introduced to coastal waters through ballast […]
The Architecture Billings Index increased 2.2 points to 55.2 in September, according to the American Institute of Architects (AIA). The ABI, an indicator of construction activity, reflects the 9-12 month lead between architecture billings and construction spending, with any score above 50 indicating an increase in billings. The new projects inquiry index rose to 64.8 […]
After the recent sell off of HRC futures, it appears the market has reached a critical support level with Cal 15 trading at $620. Near months aren’t much higher with Nov14 trading around $623 and Dec14 at $621. The selloff came as concerns over the global economy came to light in recent weeks. The International […]
The following is a “hypothetical” calculation of the spread between world hot rolled export prices and domestic (USA & Canada) hot rolled prices. Actual HRC price spreads can vary based on freight costs, trader margins and other factors. SMU compares the world hot rolled export price with adders for freight, handling, trader margin, etc., against […]
The Manufacturing Business Outlook published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia dropped slightly in October. The index for current activity slipped from 22.5 to 20.7 with 34 percent of respondents reporting an increase in activity while 14 percent reported a decrease. The current shipments index remained positive although dropping to 16.6 from 21.6 in […]
The headline index for the Empire State Manufacturing Survey Index fell 21 points in October. The general business index registered 6.2 after a robust September at 27.54. The decline indicates that business activity is still considered growing but a slower pace. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the share of responses indicating […]
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) made the following statement this week: “Despite setbacks, an uneven global recovery continues. Largely due to weaker-than-expected global activity in the first half of 2014, the growth forecast for the world economy has been revised downward to 3.3 percent for this year, 0.4 percentage point lower than in the April […]
The Dodge Momentum Index, a monthly measure of initial reports for nonresidential building projects in planning, fell 0.7 percent from August to a reading of 115.8 for September. The index rose 13 percent in the first half of this year but has been down in the past three months by a combined percentage of 7 […]
The following article was produced by SMU contributing writer Peter Wright for our Premium level members. However, we felt that the current strengthening trend of the U.S. dollar is important for all of our readers to understand as it is impacting both commodity and steel prices and will continue to do so in the future. […]
Contributing writer, Andre Marshall of Crunch Risk, LLC, provides a glimpse at the financial, copper, steel (hot rolled coil), iron ore and scrap markets for our readers. Mr. Marshall is well known within the futures community and is the instructor for our Managing Price Risk I & II workshops. Financial Markets: Rethinking Island Mentality The […]