Metalforming companies are predicting little change in economic conditions in the next three months, according to data from the May 2014 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report. Incoming orders are also expected to remain relatively unchanged during the period. Current daily shipping levels declined in May compared to three months ago according to those […]
Indicators in the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia May 2014 Business Outlook Survey were positive for the third consecutive month indicting manufacturing activity continues to expand in the Third District. The general activity index dropped slightly from 16.6 in April to 15.4 in May. New orders and current shipments decreased by 4 and 9 points, […]
Manufacturing conditions improved significantly in May according to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The general business conditions index leapt 18 points to 19.0, up from a weak reading of 1.3 in April and at its highest level in four years. New orders and shipments rose from […]
The Canada Monthly Survey of Manufacturing, March 2014 was just released indicating a 0.4 percent improvement in manufacturing sales in March. Higher sales were seen in food, machinery and plastics & rubber, but were offset by declines in paper, petroleum and coal products. Two thirds of the manufacturing sector had increased sales in March with […]
If we start with the premise that the consumer is almost 70 percent of GDP and that steel consumption is closely correlated with GDP, then consumer behavior and in particular debt is very relevant to our future businesses. Consumer spending is driven by income and both the perception of current debt and willingness to take […]
The Broad Index value of the US $ has been gradually strengthening for 18 months (Figure 1), which favors imports to the US and depresses exports. See explanation at the end of this piece. Table 1 shows the number of currency units that it takes to buy one US $ and the percent change in […]
The April 2014 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices addressed changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households over the past three months. This summary is based on the responses from 74 domestic banks and 23 U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks. The […]
The hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market has been trading sideways over the past couple of weeks, taking cues from the physical market that looks to have slowed its ascent. Trading volumes have been fairly average, with traders and hedgers seemingly more comfortable on the sidelines until a new catalyst sparks the market to break […]
Steel buyers in the April Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Steel Buyers Survey are expecting general economic activity to remain the same for the next six months. Higher orders are anticipated during the next three months but current order levels are still weaker than buyers would like. Right now at present production rates and with […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on non-farm employment wildly exceeded expectations in April with a net gain of 288,000 jobs. The February and March total was revised upward by 36,000. The three month moving average (3MMA) rose from 150,000 in February, to 190,000 in March and to 238,000 in April (Figure 1). The […]
The JP Morgan Global PMI was at a six-month low in April but indicated manufacturing remains in the expansion range. At 51.9 the score reflected weaker production and new orders. The PMI was negatively affected by the downturn in production and new business that followed an increase in sales tax in Japan. The US and […]
Mike Rippey, president and CEO of ArcelorMittal USA, has been elected Chairman of the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). Rippey will serve as chairman until May 2015, leading advocacy efforts on behalf of AISI and the industry to advance pro-manufacturing polices that will enhance the competitiveness of the North American steel industry. “Mike’s been a strong […]
April turned out to be a month where supply disruptions squeezed the life out of non-repentant steel buyers: flat rolled steel buyers who had run their inventories too lean or who hesitated when U.S. Steel Great Lakes went down, only to be ambushed by steelmaking curtailments at USS Gary Works (and elsewhere) due to iron […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their first estimate of real GDP today, (April 30th) for Q1 2014. GDP rose in the fourth quarter by 2.6 percent but declined to 0.1 percent in the first estimate for Q1 2014. Figure 1 shows quarterly results since 1990 with the IMF forecast through 2018. The Q1 […]
Economic data released in April indicated signs of slower growth in the economy. Survey participants, however, continue to be optimistic about business activity during the next three to six months. The Architecture Billings Index fell to 48.8 in April, indicating contraction after hovering just above the neutral point for the last two months. The protracted […]
April is now behind us and it proved to be one interesting month. In looking at the key data we follow on a monthly basis for our readers, SMU Price Momentum Indicator ended the month where it began pointing to higher prices over the near term. SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index ended the month at […]
Financial Markets We are still in the testing of the highs mode, closing in the 1877.50 zone on S+P 500, not much different from a week back. Need to take the out the old high and test 1900 again, otherwise… The Fed tapered on the easing, paring the buying program back $10 bln /month again–think […]
This article is part of a longer article first published on Thursday, May 1st and is written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunchrisk, LLC and our Managing Price Risk II instructor: Steel It was a fairly quiet week in futures with 400 lots or 8,000 ST trading most of yesterday on the July date. […]
April was a month of disappointing economic indicators. The Architecture Billings Index turned negative this month after climbing up from a reading of 48.6 in December. The March reading was just 48.8, down from 50.7 in February and 50.4 in January. The American Institute of Architects Architecture Billings Index, an indicator of future construction activity, […]
The following article published April 13, is one that we would normally just provide to our Premium Level members. We thought that those who have Executive level and Monthly membership would be interested in some of the detail we are providing our Premium Level members. If you have questions about Premium Level membership please feel […]
The American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) commented on a report released earlier today by the Center for American Progress (CAP) regarding China’s Economic Reform. The AISI stated that CAP’s article indicates that economic reforms announced by Chinese leadership last fall will do nothing to mitigate China’s state-ownership and control over key industrial sectors, including […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their April report on May 1st. The April PMI registered 54.9 percent up from 53.7 percent in March. Any number >50 indicates expansion and this was the eleventh straight month for which this was the case. The three month moving average (3MMA), which had declined for the last three […]
The Chicago Business Barometer increased at its fastest pace in six months to a reading of 63.0 in April from 59.9. The three month moving average registers just below 60 which is an indication of continued recovery for economy. New orders and production led the rise in activity along with improvements in order backlogs and […]
Latin American steelmaker, Ternium, turned in a positive quarter with net sales up 2 percent to $2.149 from fourth quarter and 1 percent from Q1 2013. Net income was $188.2 million compared to $174.7 in the fourth quarter, and $164 million in Q1 2013. Ternium net steel sales increased 1% to $2,149.4 million. Operating income […]
The consumer confidence index decreased by 1.6 in April driven by a decline of 4.2 in the present situation component and an increase of 0.1 in expectations. Job availability was the main drag, a surprising result since economists expect the April net job creation report to be strong when reported by the Bureau of Labor […]
Home prices are continuing to rise but at a slower pace according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices Indices. The S&P Dow Jones Indices are released monthly and compare annual rate gain for the 10-City and 20-City Composites. The current indice, released at the end of April, shows the rate of gain in February at 13.1 […]
The following is an abridged version of the Chicago Federal Reserve statement plus our own graphical analysis. The Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update. An explanation of the index is provided at the end […]
The following is an analysis of trading over the past week in the financial markets, especially in the hot rolled coil derivatives (futures) and busheling scrap futures markets. This article was written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunchrisk, LLC and the instructor for the Steel Market Update Managing Price Risk series including our newest addition: […]
Steel Market Update is a member of an association connected to the construction industry called HARDI. HARDI stands for Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International. HARDI and The Institute for Trend Research (ITR), an economic forecasting company, work together to gather economic data to provide a forecast to the HARDI members located in the United […]
This seems to be a week of disappointing economic indicators. The Architecture Billings Index turned negative this month after climbing up from a reading of 48.6 in December. The March reading was just 48.8, down from 50.7 in February and 50.4 in January. The American Institute of Architects Architecture Billings Index, an indicator of future […]