Category: SMU

Nucor lowered its weekly spot price for hot-rolled (HR) coil for a second straight week, down $10 per short ton (st), after keeping it in a holding pattern for most of April.

Shipments of water heaters, air conditioner/heat pumps, and warm-air furnaces all increased from February to March. Total monthly shipments are now at a seven-month high.

However, in a month plagued by tariff and economic uncertainty, both current and near-term outlooks for our scrap survey respondents remained surprisingly optimistic.

Here are highlights of what’s happened and a few things to keep an eye on this upcoming week.

Oil and gas drilling activity declined again this week in the US and Canada, according to Baker Hughes.

The volume of steel exported from the US marginally increased from February to March, according to the latest US Department of Commerce figures. Although up month over month (m/m), export levels have generally trended downward over the past year.  

Cliffs came tantalizing close to buying U.S. Steel in 2023. There were rumors in 2024 that Cliffs might buy NLMK USA before it ultimately purchased Stelco for $2.5 billion in November of last year. Who would have thought that asset sales would have been the focal point of discussion just six months later?

US steel imports rebounded from February to March, rising to the second-highest monthly rate witnessed in the past ten months, according to final data recently released by the US Commerce Department. April license data shows that gain has likely been erased, with trade falling to the lowest rate of the year and several product categories hitting multi-year lows.

SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics earlier this week, including market prices and demand, tariffs and reshoring, inventories and imports, and evolving market trends.

Steel buyers said Nucor’s price decrease was a public acknowledgement of what most of the market had already known - that sheet prices were moving lower in a more significant way. The question now is whether mills and service centers will manage the decline or whether prices might fall rapidly, they said.

Please take a moment to complete our short survey and share your views on how our prices, methodologies, and definitions can better support your work. Your feedback plays a key role in how we continue to serve you and the wider steel market.

SunCoke Energy posted lower earnings in the first quarter. Meanwhile, the company said it has extended the cokemaking contract for U.S. Steel’s Granite City Works in Illinois through the end of September 2025.

Given the news about tariffs and bringing back industries to the US, a brief look back in time may show how our economy changes with technological advances and the shifting economies of scale. 

Raw steel mill output ticked higher last week, now up to the highest weekly rate recorded in over seven months, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

After holding its weekly spot price for hot-rolled (HR) coil steady for three weeks at $930 per short ton (st), Nucor lowered the price this week by $20/st.

We’ve talked about tariffs ad nauseam for much of the year. And I’m afraid this topic isn’t going away anytime soon. There’s a feeling that the tariff “can” will just be kicked down the road again and again, and again.

SMU’s Monthly Review provides a summary of our key steel market metrics for the previous month, with the latest data updated through April 30.

The US Commerce Department has set up an “inclusions process” to add derivative aluminum and steel articles within the scope of the new Section 232 tariffs.

With so much happening in the news cycle, we want to make it easier. Here are highlights of what’s happened and a few things to keep an eye on this upcoming week.

SMU’s Buyers’ Sentiment Indices both improved this week, reversing the decline seen two weeks ago.

US cold-rolled (CR) coil prices edged lower again this week, slipping four weeks in a row now. Most offshore markets mirrored the move, ticking down marginally as well.

Can technology help with pig iron and DRI/HBI tariffs?

Sheet and plate lead times held steady this week, according to buyers responding to the latest SMU market survey. This week we saw little change from mid-April levels, with just one product (Galvalume) showing any significant movement.

Nearly two thirds of the steel buyers who responded to this week’s SMU survey say domestic mills are negotiable on spot prices. This increasing flexibility marks a significant shift from the firmer stance mills held in recent months.

Tariff-related noise aside, there is one basic factor keeping buyers on the sidelines. Despite recent declines, HR prices remain at historically high levels. And there is no obvious support to keep them there.

Most sheet and plate steel prices declined yet again this week, with four of SMU’s five indices moving lower.

If you’re looking to build a solid foundation in steel or sharpen the knowledge you already have, the SMU Steel 101 Workshop is a great place to start. Our next workshop will be held in Memphis, Tenn. on June 10-11, 2025

US steel mills produced more raw steel last week than they have over the past seven months, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute.

Nucor’s weekly consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled (HR) coil remained unchanged this week.

United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.