Category: US

Since June, The US hot-rolled coil (HRC) futures market has been in a rare period of prolonged price stability, closely mirroring the subdued volatility seen in the physical market. Over the past five months, futures have been rangebound, with prices oscillating between a floor near $680 and a ceiling around $800. This tight range, highlighted in the chart, underscores a cautious market environment. The chart below shows the rolling 3rd month CME HRC Future.

Sheet lead times are stable to slightly extended compared to late-October levels, but are down for all products relative to production times one month ago.

Most steel buyers polled in our market poll this week continue to report mills are open to negotiation on new order pricing.  In fact, negotiation rates have been strong for the majority of 2024, trending higher since September.

Donald Trump has won the US presidential election. The Republican party has re-taken control of the Senate. Votes are still being counted in many tight congressional races. But based on results so far, the Republicans seem likely to maintain control of the House of Representatives. If confirmed, this will give Trump considerable scope to pass legislation pursuing his agenda. What this means for US policy is not immediately obvious. Trump will not be inaugurated until Jan. 20. In the coming weeks and months, he will begin to assemble his cabinet, which may give a clearer signal on his policy priorities and approaches. Based on statements he made during the presidential campaign, we have set out the likely direction of his economic policy here and green policy here.

SMU price indices edged lower this week for all products but one, marking the fifth consecutive week of overall declining prices.

Domestic manufacturing contracted for the seventh straight month in October, according to the latest report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). This marks the 23rd time in the last 24 months that it has been in contraction.

The Chicago Business Barometer fell to a five-month low in October and continues to indicate deteriorating business conditions, according to Market News International (MNI) and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

We all know the American news cycle moves pretty fast. Viral today, cached tomorrow. So it is with the US presidential election on Tuesday, Nov. 5. People have election fatigue. They've moved on to other things like planning holiday parties, debating Super Bowl hopefuls, or even starting to look forward to our Tampa Steel Conference in February.

SMU’s Current Sentiment Index suggests steel buyers are still optimistic about their businesses’ ability to succeed in today’s market, though their confidence has significantly declined compared to recent months.

In this Insight piece, CRU economists explore the possible economic effects of Trump's and Harris' agendas.

Architecture firms continued to experience soft business conditions through September, according to the latest Architecture Billings Index (ABI) release by the American Institute of Architects (AIA) and Deltek.

More than nine out of every 10 steel buyers polled by SMU this week reported that mills are flexible on prices for new orders. Negotiation rates have been strong since April and on the rise since early September.

The construction sector added 25,000 jobs in September, driven by labor shortages and improved wages, according to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Growth in the US economy continues to crawl with little change in most districts. The Federal Reserve’s October Beige Book report showed three-quarters of reporting districts with flat or declining economic activity.

Mill lead times have declined on both sheet and plate products this week, according to steel buyers responding to our latest market survey,

After a relatively stable and boring September, CME hot-rolled coil (HRC) futures have been on the move lower thus far in October. Since Sept. 30, the November and December futures have declined $63 and $65, respectively, with the curve’s contango steepening.

After a brief pickup in September, manufacturing activity in New York state retreated into contraction, according to the October Empire State Manufacturing Survey.

SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices moved in different directions this week. Our Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index eased to a six-week low, while Future Buyers’ Sentiment ticked up to a four-week high. Both of our Indices continue to indicate optimism among steel buyers.

CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores shares insight into the hot-rolled coil futures market.

Steel mill lead times inched up this week for most sheet and plate products, according to buyers responding to our latest market survey.

Negotiation rates have consistently been in the 70-80% range for over two months, relatively strong in comparison to levels seen across the past year.

Slowing growth in data center planning caused the Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) to pull back in September. The decline followed five months of growth after the index hit a two-year low in March.

While the English language is vast, there is not an endless number of ways to say, “no major changes have transpired.” And if anyone has been tasked with talking about steel price changes in physical and futures US domestic steel market over the last four months, they are probably stretching their ability to its limit.

Construction spending in the US declined for a third month in August but showed an increase year over year (y/y). The US Census Bureau estimated construction spending to be $2.131 trillion in August on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). While this was 0.1% below July’s revised spending rate, it was 4.1% higher than spending […]

US manufacturing activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month in September, according to the latest report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The index has indicated a contracting industrial sector for 22 of the past 23 months.

The Chicago Business Barometer increased marginally in September but continues to indicate deteriorating business conditions.

SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices remain in positive territory and continue to indicate optimism amongst steel buyers.

Over three quarters of the steel buyers participating in our market survey this week reported that mills are negotiable on new order prices

We saw a slight upward movement in some products compared to early September, but nothing substantial enough to signal a shift in the market.

The Conference Board reported that consumer confidence in the US dropped to one of the lowest readings of the year in September. With concerns mounting about business conditions and the labor market, the tumble was the biggest monthly decline since August 2021.