Market Data
March 25, 2025
Written by Brett Linton
Steel prices moved in differing directions this week but remained largely stable as cautious buyers await clarity on pending steel tariffs and trade cases.
Of the five sheet and plate indices tracked by SMU, two declined this week, two were unchanged, and one increased.
US manufacturing activity expanded for the 10th consecutive month in October, according to supply executives in the Institute for Supply Management's latest report. The October ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index registered 55.5%, up one percentage point from the prior month. An index reading above 50% indicates the manufacturing economy is growing, while a reading below that indicates contraction. ISM noted that the overall economy continued to expand in October for the 24th consecutive month, emphasizing that a PMI reading above 47.5% over a period of time generally indicates that the overall economy is growing.
Domestic raw steel production surged last week, reaching its highest output in almost two decades, according to the latest American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) figures. While the seesaw pattern continued for US production this past week, production swelled to its highest reading since Aug. 23, 2008, driven by a massive swing in the South. The increase reversed the recent downward trend, with a sharp rebound in the South accounting for nearly all the weekly gain. Production has fluctuated considerably over the past two months, reaching both an 18-year high and its lowest level since January.
The Chicago Business Barometer slipped in October but remained in expansion for a second month. The Barometer reading from ISM Chicago and MNI Indicators came in at 55.3 in October, down 3.5 points from September but up 8.2 points from contraction in August. The Barometer is a diffusion index. Readings above 50 indicate improving business conditions. Those below 50 indicate a contraction in activity.
The latest tally of active drilling rigs held steady in the US for a fourth straight week, while activity rose further in Canada this week, according to oil and gas rig count data published by Baker Hughes. The US rig count remained unchanged at 603 rigs this week, maintaining a 17-month high. Compared with this time last year, 57 more rigs are in operation today. Canada’s count rose by six to 226 rigs this week, gaining ground for a second consecutive week. Activity is up from the same week of 2025, with 39 more rigs operating today.
In my last column, the HRC futures curve was pricing a sizable premium on near-term tightness while still pointing toward eventual normalization. Since then, that basic story has remained intact, but the shape of the curve has shifted meaningfully. Rather than simply moving higher and pushing the peak out by another month, as has largely been the pattern throughout this rally, the curve is now pricing a more pronounced and prolonged period of tightness, while the long end has remained relatively anchored, which previously had also been lifted with the rest of the curve.