Editor’s note: The following is excerpted from the Feb. 13 CRU Steel Sheet Monitor; editing by CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores. In our Steel Sheet Products Monitor last month, we asked if the market was near an inflection point. That report was published on the sixth working day of the year and, at that point, global sheet […]
By Erik Hedborg, CRU Senior Analyst The recent dam breach in Brazil will complicate iron ore pellet premia negotiations and is likely to lead to steel mills eventually accepting sharp premia increases. As a result of the dam breach, Vale has suspended 11 Mt/y of pellet production in the Southern System and the recently revoked operating […]
By CRU Australia Analyst Ryan Smith China has traditionally dominated long product exports to the South East Asia (SEA) region. However, a change in market dynamics has reduced Chinese export volumes and created an opportunity for exporters from further afield. In Turkey, economic challenges, in combination with rising trade barriers such as EU safeguards and […]
By CRU North America Steel Analyst Ryan McKinley Since Section 232 tariffs have come into force, U.S. wire rod prices have increased more than other markets. As a result, domestic PC strand (prestressed concrete steel strand) producers have seen costs increase, inviting more competition from abroad. Higher Prices Affecting Competitiveness Rising U.S. domestic wire rod […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Erik Hedborg Iron ore prices continued to climb during the week as uncertainty regarding Vale’s supply persists. With weak buying in China due to the holidays, we have seen the market react by pushing the 62% Fe fines price up to $86.00 /t, $7.40 higher w/w. The Vale story continues to […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the theoretical spread between foreign hot rolled steel prices (delivered to U.S. ports) and domestic hot rolled coil prices (FOB domestic mills). We want our readers to be aware that this is only a “theoretical” calculation as freight costs, trader margin and other costs […]
By CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison The partial U.S. government shutdown, which began on Dec. 22, 2018, lasted 35 days and is the longest shutdown in U.S. history. President Trump decided to re-open the government until Feb. 15 to allow time for additional negotiations regarding the border security issues. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that […]
By CRU Senior Analysts Erik Hedborg and Andrew Gadd The death toll after the tailings dam accident at Vale’s Córrego do Feijão mine continues to climb, as 84 people are now confirmed dead and close to 300 are still missing. Five people have been arrested; three managers at the Córrego do Feijão mine site and […]
We have many new members as well as those on trials of our newsletters and website. I want to take a couple of minutes and explain what “final thoughts” means as it relates to this newsletter and Steel Market Update in general. Since I first started writing the Steel Market Update newsletter, I wanted a […]
Major domestic steelmakers have announced a $40 per ton ($2/cwt) hike in the price of hot rolled, cold rolled and galvanized steel products, fueling the debate over whether current market conditions can support an increase or if the latest announcement is bound to flop like the last one in October. West Coast mills California Steel […]
By CRU Iron Ore Senior Analyst Erik Hedborg The tragic dam accident in Brazil together with a cyclone off the Australian coast lifted iron ore prices in the past week. On Tuesday, Jan. 29, CRU has assessed the 62% Fe, CFR China fines price at $78.60 /t, up $2.60 /t w/w. The tragic accident in […]
Steel Market Update sources disagree on whether ferrous scrap prices will see a small decline or move sideways in February. But the market remains unusual for this time of year when scrap prices normally increase as the mills restock ahead of new-year steel demand. Scrap prices surprised the market with a $30-40 per ton decrease […]
By CRU Steel Editor Linda Lin, Shanghai, China Through late December and the first half of January, Chinese exporters were able to realize a small increase in steel export prices for the first time since August. The m/m increase in HR coil was limited to $2 /t, while rebar prices rose by $6 /t. Price […]
There has been a downward reversal in raw materials prices in the last month. Table 1 summarizes the price changes through January of the five materials considered in this analysis. It reports the month/month, 3 months/3 months and 12 months/12 months changes and tells us that price movements have been negative for all materials except […]
Nope, I have not yet changed my position on the flat rolled market and where I am seeing momentum. Demand is good, sentiment is just “ok” for lack of a better term. I am seeing a little weakness in the plate market, but come on, the spread between plate and hot rolled is way too […]
Another hectic day in the steel industry – at least for me. Steel buyers seemed to be taking a wait-and-see approach to the market at the moment, but this too will change (it always does). At the moment, I still have our Price Momentum Indicator pointing toward “Lower” spot prices over the next 30 days. […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores Scrap prices in the U.S. fell $30 /lt m/m in January, the first time since 2006 that prices have declined in the month. The fall was also the largest December to January decrease in at least two decades for obsolete grades. The unusual decline occurred because supply outpaced demand […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the theoretical spread between foreign hot rolled steel prices (delivered to U.S. ports) and domestic hot rolled coil prices (FOB domestic mills). We want our readers to be aware that this is only a “theoretical” calculation as freight costs, trader margin and other costs […]
Analysts at the CRU Group share their latest information on the global iron ore and coking coal markets. Iron Ore Prices Steady on Short Supply Weak seaborne supply kept iron ore prices elevated during the past week. The market is also closely following the development of the fire at Rio Tinto’s Cape Lambert port, which […]
The North American steel sheet market in 2018 was heavily influenced by effects from the Section 232 tariffs. These tariffs greatly increased U.S. sheet prices, while at the same time helped to further reduce imports. Our forecast today calls for a more measured rate of increase for underlying industrial growth, while prices will more closely […]
I heard from one of my trading contacts who lives inside of China over the weekend. He had attended an economic lecture, the topic of which has been banned in China. China’s economy is a mess. I will have more on the Chinese economy and what it might mean for North America in the coming […]
By CRU North America Analyst Ryan McKinley Long product prices in the U.S. are coming under downward pressure after a build-up in late-2018 inventory levels lingered into the new year and import prices became more attractive for domestic buyers. Price drops so far—where they have occurred—have been minimal but import deals with arrival dates 60-90 […]
With the partial government shutdown in its 20th day, the political standoff in Washington over President Trump’s border wall remains focused on his $5.7 billion budget request. The larger question is whether a construction project of the scale the president has proposed is even feasible, at any cost. From a steel industry standpoint, the project […]
It is so rare that I get to spend two weeks in the office, and I think I am going to be here for another week or so. At the end of the month, I will be in Mississippi to conduct one of our Steel 101 workshops. The Starkville workshop is close to being sold […]
People are beginning to ask questions about this year’s SMU Steel Summit Conference. Here is the most updated information: REGISTRATION IS OPEN Dates: Monday, Aug. 26 through Wednesday, Aug. 28, 2019 Location: Georgia International Convention Center (www.gicc.com) adjacent to the Atlanta International Airport (ATL). Same location as last year. Cost: $1,375 per person, prior to […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the theoretical spread between foreign hot rolled steel prices (delivered to U.S. ports) and domestic hot rolled coil prices (FOB domestic mills). We want our readers to be aware that this is only a “theoretical” calculation as freight costs, trader margin and other costs […]
When on calls with steel service center and manufacturing executives, one of the questions that always comes up is my view on the economy. I am not an economist and I defer to CRU and to economists like Alan Beaulieu of ITR Economics (Alan speaks at the SMU Steel Summit Conference). I know Dr. Beaulieu’s […]
Gaurav Chhibbar is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Gaurav’s previous role, he was a trader at Cargill spending time in Metal and […]
By CRU Analysts Laima Balse and Director Paul Robinson Prices for all major commodities in the CRU price basket, except for U.S. steel, declined during 2018. There were a few factors that caused this downwards price trend and market volatility. This overview looks across the commodity groups at the common trends affecting the industry, and […]
The New Year has started, the pace is a little slow for some, others have told me that their order books got a kick start yesterday. I have to imagine the differences are based on geography and product. This afternoon I had an interesting conversation with the head of commercial for a domestic steel mill. […]