The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), iron ore and financial futures markets was written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk LLC and our Managing Price Risk I & II instructor. Our next Managing Price Risk II workshop will be held in Chicago at the end of April – […]
Chinese steel exports to the U.S. in January 2015 were 40 percent higher than in January 2014, according to World Steel Association data. As Chinese domestic demand weakens, exports have flooded not only the U.S. but nations across the globe. The resulting depressed prices and undercutting of domestic steel production has led to increased government […]
I want to shout out to all of the people who worked on tonight’s newsletter as this has been a particularly hectic day for me due to my travel schedule. Brett Linton and Sandy Williams both did great jobs (as usual) as they bounced from subject to subject and article to article. Peter Wright continues […]
The energy sector has been one of the critical steel-using market segments which is impacting the steel industry at this time. There are two separate issues at the moment, exploration and production, and they are moving in opposite directions. The exploratory rig count is collapsing and production is increasing. Figure 1 shows historical gas and […]
Steel prices continued their slide this week. The CRU was down $14 to $488/ton, which has put downward pressure on futures contracts for nearby months. April and May are trading approximately $10 lower this week with the former at $495/ton and the latter closer to $510/ton. While nearby months have been influenced by the deteriorating […]
Net imports equals imports minus exports. We regard this as an important look at the overall trade picture and its effect on demand at the mill level. Figure 1 shows that net sheet product imports on a three month moving average (3MMA) basis in January were almost double that which existed before the recession. The […]
In the twelve months of 2014, scrap exports totaled 15,308,000 tonnes, down by 17.1 percent from the same period in 2013. In the single month of January 2015 exports were 1,148,422 which is an annual rate of 13,781,062 tons. Figure 1 shows that the monthly average declined for three consecutive years, 2012 through 2014 and […]
Apparent steel supply for the month of January 2015 was 10,378,392 net tons (9,415,130 metric tons). Apparent steel supply is calculated by adding domestic steel shipments and finished US steel imports and subtracting total US steel exports. January supply represents a 992,133 ton or 10.6 percent increase compared to the same month one year ago. […]
January steel exports totaled 925,428 net tons (839,535 metric tons), down 0.4 percent over December and down 3.9 percent from January 2014. Total January figures are below both the thee month moving average (3MMA) and the twelve month moving average (12MMA). Here is a breakdown of flat rolled and plate exports: Cut plate exports declined […]
Steel Market Update has received a number of inquiries recently asking questions about the potential for a trade case or anti-dumping filing by the domestic mills against foreign steel imports. In particular, the imports in question are cold rolled and coated steels and, the country mentioned the most is China, although if there is a […]
The following article is usually available to our Premium level members only. This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market in one single report to enable a side by side comparison and the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department […]
SMU had the opportunity to attend the Association of Steel Distributors (ASD) meeting in Pittsburgh on March 5. The meeting was held at the delightfully decorated Hotel Monaco in downtown Pittsburgh. ASD president Brian Robbins welcomed the younger than usual attendees to the ASD meeting and invited them to become part of the Future Leaders […]
The Russians are coming! The Russians are coming! Well, at least that is what the rest of the world is seeing when it comes to steel. The Russian steel mills have become the benefactors of the drop in the value of the Russian currency (the ruble). Steel Market Update has learned the Russian ruble lost […]
Every week the US Department of Commerce (US DOC) releases steel import license data for those months that have not had Preliminary Census or Final Census data announced. The latest license data was released this afternoon covering the month of February through today. Since we are so early into the month of March SIMA did […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their February report on March 2nd. An explanation of this data set is given at the end of this piece. After the October surprise on the upside, the index slid back to 55.1 in December to 53.5 in January and to 52.9 in February. The three month moving average […]
Twenty-seven months of consecutive global manufacturing growth was marked by the JP Morgan Global PMI in February. The headline index rose to 52.0 from 51.7 in January. The United States continued to be the prime driver of global growth with the Markit U.S. PMI increasing to 55.1 from 53.9 in January. Mexico showed strong growth […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
The monthly value of the Federal Reserve Broad Index value of the US $ against our major trading partners has continued to strengthen and in January reached 92.44 after breaking 90 in December for the first time since July 2009. The monthly BI is a “Real” inflation adjusted index. The Fed also reports a daily […]
Hot rolled prices continued lower this week with the CRU down $9 to $508/ton with HRC futures following suit. Q2 has been trading around $510/ton with March trading as low as $503/ton – $13 lower than the week prior. The second half of 2015 is reasonably higher with Q3 and Q4 both trading around $535/ton. […]
The vehicle sales year had a good start in January with 16.7 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis. Light trucks are benefiting from lower gas prices and reached 55 percent of light vehicle sales, the highest since 2014. This is good for the US assembly plants because the US light truck production is […]
The first graphic depicted below shows published Chinese data for the growth of GDP, industrial production and consumer prices through Q4 2014. The GDP and industrial production portions of this graph are three month moving averages. GDP grew 7.3 percent y/y in both the 3rd and 4th quarters and has been declining since Q1 2010. […]
The monthly value of the Federal Reserve Broad Index value of the US $ against our major trading partners has continued to strengthen and in January reached 92.44 after breaking 90 in December for the first time since July 2009. The monthly BI is a “Real” inflation adjusted index. The Fed also reports a daily […]
The Coface Group, a worldwide leader in credit insurance, publishes country risk assessments for 160 countries, based on its unique knowledge of company payment behavior and on the expertise of 350 underwriters located close to clients and their debtors. The following a reprint of their risk outlook for 2015. Laborious Global Recovery, Subject to Multiple […]
The following article on the futures market was written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk, LLC and our instructor for Managing Price Risk I and II workshops. Financial Markets: Too bad we’re not all money managers as life would be pretty easy – just keep your customer long the market, sit back, and enjoy […]
Apparent steel supply for the month of December 2014 was 10,020,704 net tons, the sixth month in 2014 to be above the 10 million ton mark. Steel Market Update calculates our apparent steel supply figure by combining total domestic steel shipments with finished US steel imports and subtracting total US steel exports. December supply represents […]
In the twelve months of 2014, ferrous scrap exports totaled 15,308,000 tonnes (metric tons), down by 17.1 percent from the same period in 2013. In the single month of December scrap exports were 1,056,570 tonnes, down 21.5 percent from November. Figure 1 shows that the three month moving average (3MMA) has been declining slightly for […]
January steel exports from China in rose to an all-time monthly record of 10.29 million tons, surprising analysts who were expecting reduced shipments this month. Steel shipments were expected to fall after China canceled the export tax rebate for Boron-added steel on January 1. Analysts predicted steel export volume would drop as much 30 percent […]
Last month we began to report on domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market in one single report to be able to compare side by side demand and the degree to which imports have absorbed that demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by […]
The American Institute for International Steel (AIIS) reports that U.S. steel exports declined 5 percent year over year in 2014. Exports fell 2.6 percent in the last month of the year with a drop in NAFTA exports accounting for most of the November to December decline. AIIS statistics and commentary follows: Falls Church, VA. February […]
EUROFER, the European Steel Association, says high levels of steel imports into the European market are “distorting traditional steel trade flows.” Steel imports into the European Union (EU) rose by more than 14 percent. EU steel use grew hesitantly in the second half of 2014, rising just 3.3 percent in 2014. “Weak business conditions in […]