When I last wrote I mentioned we would test the S & P 1720-1750 zone before attempting a rebound. We reached a 1737 low and we are now in rebound mode these last two weeks with the market last at 1829 zone. We are headed back to test the highs at 1850 to see if […]
The following HRC futures article is written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunchrisk, LLC and the instructor of our new Managing Price Risk 2 – Strategies & Execution workshop. Well the S+P 500 took a turn down starting Thursday and Friday of last week, dropping from 1850 down to a 1770 low yesterday. We have […]
Financial Markets: The equities markets have stabilized after their reaction to the poor jobs number in December last week. The S+P closed at 1836 today, exactly 3 points higher than where I reported it last week. We are likely headed higher as it will take a lot more than a poor jobs report to scare […]
Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunchrisk, LLC has the duties of outlining the hot rolled futures and busheling scrap futures markets for our readers (as well as taking a look at the financial markets, iron ore and commodities in general): On the March S+P future we closed at 1833, this is up from the 1806 level […]
Financial Markets: Well two weeks back the S+P held that 1775 zone it tested. It has since rallied back to new highs yesterday at 1806.75, this for the March future. Yesterday the Fed announced the beginning of the easing of the easing, or bond buyback program. The Fed will start to taper their bond buying […]
The S+P has stumbled in the last week, if you can call retracing 1.5% off the highs in a 175 percent 6 year rally stumbling! As I mentioned two weeks back, we were likely to test resistance at 1800 for a bit before retracing slightly. Since this market doesn’t even recognize retracements anymore, we didn’t […]
For CME Group hot rolled coil (HRC) volume – November 2013 volume 3,869 contracts traded (77,380 short tons) compared to November 2012 volume 2,198 contracts traded (43,960 ST) – a 37.1 percent increase year over year. HRC 2013 YTD volume 51,163 contracts traded versus 2012 YTD volume 41,455 contracts traded – a 23.4 percent increase […]
Financial Markets When I last wrote I commented that it was likely we would head back up solidly into the 1775-1800 zone on S+P 500 before attempting any retracement. Well, today we closed 1790. We should meet some pretty good resistance here which we will likely test for a couple of weeks. With yearend approaching, […]
On Thursday, October 31st Steel Market Update adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator from Neutral to Higher. We now believe domestic flat rolled steel prices will rise over the next 30 to 60 days. We have already begun reporting prices as rising over the past three weeks. Prices on benchmark hot rolled coil had been bouncing […]
The increased uncertainty over future hot rolled coil pricing has elevated interest in HRC futures. Based on CME Group data there were 8,033 hot rolled futures contracts during the month of October for a total of 160,660 net tons. This represents a 51 percent increase over the 5,301 contracts (106,020 tons) during October 2012. During […]
Last evening (Thursday, October 31st) Steel Market Update adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator from Neutral to Higher. We now believe domestic flat rolled steel prices will rise over the next 30 to 60 days. We have already begun reporting prices as rising over the past three weeks. Prices on benchmark hot rolled coil had been […]
Last evening (Thursday, October 31st) Steel Market Update adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator from Neutral to Higher. We now believe domestic flat rolled steel prices will rise over the next 30 to 60 days. We have already begun reporting prices as rising over the past three weeks. Prices on benchmark hot rolled coil had been […]
In my last ditty, I mentioned we were likely headed to the 1775-1800 area on the S&P 500. Well yesterday we reached 1775. However, the Fed statement from their October meeting yesterday had just enough language changes from the September meeting that some felt nervous and got out of some of their positions and the […]
The recent strength in the physical market has sent futures prices up over the past month. This week, however, prices have begun to soften as most market participants feel the market has reached a top. Talk of revived imports coming in as well as some domestic mills offering deals a bit below published prices has […]
Financial Markets: Okay now that that mess is over with, the S+P 500 and other U.S markets can get back to the business of what they do best – Go Up! In fact we, have already reached all time highs (again) today with the S+P 500 at 1733. As I noted, we are likely headed […]
Financial Markets: Two weeks back we suspected that the SP 500 and other US equities markets would struggle with all this Government Shutdown shenanegans. Sure enough, the SP 500 dropped progressively down to a low of 1646 yesterday from the 1697 level we had two weeks ago. However, since the announcement today of the preverbial […]
After weeks and months of a sideways market, the recent mill price hike announcements have been the spark the futures market needed to ignite trading activity. Over 8,000 tons have traded the past few days as the potential for the physical market to move higher has squeezed shorts causing them to cover and for speculators […]
Over the past week we have been receiving a number of calls and emails regarding both John Anton’s (IHS Global Insight) forecast for higher steel prices as we move into 2014 and Andre Marshall’s (Crunch Risk, LLC) hot rolled futures article where he points out that the market fundamentals will force flat rolled steel prices […]
When I last wrote two weeks back the SP 500 had failed to break down as expected and technicals suggested we were headed to 1775 as next long term target. Well within one week of that report the SP 500 hit 1730 from that Sep 12th 1685 area. This rally was in large part due […]
Financial Markets Two weeks back we were 1640 on SP 500 and technically it looked like we were headed to 1550-1560 zone as part of a larger retracement. Well the market has dumbfounded the chartists again, and we have since rebounded to today’s level of 1682. We are likely headed now to the 1770-80 zone […]
Financial Markets: Since last week’s writing the SP 500 has since rallied to test the old support above at 1670 to then fail and drop to 1627 before rebounding in the last two days to 1642. As I mentioned, we are likely in a retracement move down to the 1550 target before we can find […]
Financial Markets: When I last wrote, I mentioned that the SP 500 was likely headed to 1720 before a retracement and then an eventual rally up the 1775 zone. Well the SP 500 reached 1709 on August 2nd from which we have since retraced to 1640 yesterday. We settled today at 1657. In this retracement […]
It seems that the August month has brought with it a true summer lull. Trading volumes have been very low in the HRC futures market the past couple of weeks as many traders seem happy to sit on the sideline and await what the Autumn has to bring. The forward curve has risen ever so […]
Written by: Bradley Clark, Director of Steel Trading, Kataman Metals The HRC futures market has been exceptionally quiet over the past few weeks with almost no volume trading as the recent price hikes, uncertainty of pricing going forward and middling futures pricing has led most traders to sit on the sidelines awaiting the next price […]
Written by: Andre Marshall, Crunchrisk LLC The S&P 500 market today was higher still up to 1563 on the index. As I mentioned our long awaited target was 1542, but as the all time high was 1572 it was hard to imagine that the market would just turn back and correct being only 30 points from […]
Written by: Bradley Clark, Director of Steel Trading, Kataman Metals Well it certainly is beginning to feel like déjà vu all over again. Last week’s price hike announcements come during the same last week of the month as they did the previous month. They came after the spot price was trending down and after deals […]
Written by: Bradley Clark, Director of Steel Trading, Kataman Metals The physical HRC market continues to soften as mills offer steel at lower levels this week from a week before. The futures market has experienced a divergence in movements over the past week with the front of the curve weakening while the second half of […]
Written by: Andre Marshall, Crunchrisk Financial Markets The last of the obstacles to an improving economy, the debt ceiling and the spending cuts etc seem to be rolling over. The Republicans have cleverly put in a temporary debt ceiling increase covering us until May which will be after the budget talks in April and the […]
Written by: Andre Marshall, Crunchrisk LLC Financial Markets On the equities markets we hit a new 5 year high reaching 1485 on SP 500 today. In this current rally you might recall our target point for this move is 1488 and so we may be near a point for a little retracement. If this current move […]
Written by Brad Clark, Director of Steel Trading, Kataman Metals Settlement prices retreated this week on the CME U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled futures contract as the expected New Year’s jubilation never materialized. Volumes the past week surged as traders placed their bets for a breakout of the recent sideways trading range the market has experienced […]