David Phelps warned our readers not to put too much stock in the U.S. Department of Commerce license data, which he felt could be very misleading. Our initial forecast for January steel imports produced through the aid of the import license data from the 14th and again on the 21st of January indicated a possible […]
US Steel reported a net loss of $122 million for the fourth quarter of 2013, compared to a Q3 net loss of $1,791 million and $50 million net loss in Q4 2012. The fourth quarter loss was due mostly to $302 million of charges related to the shutdown of the Hamilton steel making facility. Adjusted […]
January 24th 2014. The Turkish Lira is in freefall. What does this mean for the US ferrous scrap industry? This is a hard question to answer because we don’t know what we don’t know. What we do know is that the Turkish Lira has declined by 20.1% against the US $ in the last 12 […]
The Eurozone is expected to have mild yet fragile growth throughout 2014 according to the EUROFER Q1-2014 Economic and Steel Market Outlook compiled by the EUROFER Economic Committee (EC). Indicators are pointing towards increased growth for industrial production, an important component for carbon flat rolled steel production in Europe. GDP has been edging up since […]
The market has taken a decidedly bearish tone this week as many feel the first cracks in the physical market are starting to appear. While prices have come off around $5 down the forward curve, the weight is strongly on the offer side, with few buyers present. The threat of imports and decreasing raw material […]
HSBC Holdings and Markit released the preliminary (flash) Purchasing Managers’ Index this morning. The reading of 49.6 disappointed the financial markets as any reading below 50.0 indicates the Chinese manufacturing economy is contracting. Meanwhile, world benchmark iron ore spot prices have been falling over the past few weeks with The Steel Index (TSI) reporting 62% […]
HSBC Holdings and Markit released the preliminary (flash) Purchasing Managers’ Index this morning. The reading of 49.6 disappointed the financial markets as any reading below 50.0 indicates the Chinese manufacturing economy is contracting. Meanwhile, world benchmark iron ore spot prices have been falling over the past few weeks with The Steel Index (TSI) reporting 62% […]
The busheling scrap market is starting to take shape, though it is still early in the month. Initial sentiment suggests that the market for prime scrap may be down around $20 / gt. With weakness in the export market as Turkish corruption problems, the weakening Lira and soft economy have prevented imports, additional material should […]
Light vehicle production in NAFTA in 2013 totaled, 16,141,347 units, the best year since 2002 and an increase of 6.0 percent on 2012 (Source Wards Automotive.). In 3 months through December production was up by 6.9 percent year over year. Light trucks which include crossovers are surging faster than cars, the year over year growth […]
Flat rolled steel prices (hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized & Galvalume steels) were mixed this week according to our ongoing flat rolled market survey as well as direct contacts with steel buyers. Prices were mixed as we saw slight improvement in hot rolled prices with an extension of the range. However, most of the price […]
Every Tuesday the U.S. Department of Commerce releases their latest steel import licensing data for the current month. Based on data collected through the 21st of January (today) total steel imports (all products) are forecast to be 3.2 million net tons for the month of January. This is slightly lower than the 3.3 million tons […]
After more than 40 years in the steel industry, with the past seven years spent commuting between Toledo, Ohio and Detroit, Michigan, Ray Culley has decided to retire as the General Manager Marketing & Commercial Services for Severstal NA. In an internal announcement seen by Steel Market Update, Severstal announced his retirement as well as […]
The Metal Service Center Institute (MSCI) produced their analysis of service center shipments and inventories as of the end of December 2013. According to the MSCI flat rolled inventories stood at 4,981,400 tons which represented a 2.6 month’s supply on a non-seasonally adjusted basis and 2.1 months supply based on seasonally adjusted data. Steel Market […]
Financial Markets: The equities markets have stabilized after their reaction to the poor jobs number in December last week. The S+P closed at 1836 today, exactly 3 points higher than where I reported it last week. We are likely headed higher as it will take a lot more than a poor jobs report to scare […]
There has been much written and said about the projected “surge” of imported steel expected to hit the United States over the next few months. Many of the steel analysts believe the incoming foreign steel will help dampened flat rolled steel prices which peaked during the first week of January at $680 per ton ($34.00/cwt) […]
Apparent supply is defined as domestic mill shipments to domestic locations plus imports. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce. The three month moving average of the total tonnage of sheet and strip supply was 4,436,772 tons per month in the period September through November. This was up by […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) has adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator from Higher to Neutral. This means we see steel market pricing at this moment as either in transition or moving sideways over the next 30 days. With ferrous scrap prices now weakening, lead times shortening and all of the available capacity back in the market […]
November prepainted flat rolled imports decreased over October, especially on galvanized and Galvalume products. The four prepainted products tracked by SMU fell a combined 21,941 net tons (NT) or 49.7 percent over the previous month. Compared to the same month one year ago, prepainted imports were down 30.2 percent on average for select products. As […]
Apparent steel supply for November was 8,592,683 net tons (NT), a 1.46 percent increase compared to the same month one year ago. This was due to a slight increase in domestic shipments and a minor decrease in exports. The net trade balance from the difference between imports and exports was a surplus of 1,653,365 net […]
In the 12 months through November the US imported 29,129,427 tons of all steel products including semi finished, exported 11,594,574 tons for a net steel trade deficit of 17,534,853 tons. The major net importer was Brazil with 3,591,401 tons. Canada and Mexico both imported more from the US than they exported to the US resulting […]
Net job creation in December was a disappointing 74,000, far below expectations. However November was revised up by 38,000 and the three month moving average of monthly job gains was hardly dented (Figure 1). This monthly result is at odds with most other economic indicators and was probably adversely affected by short term influences such […]
November steel export data indicates total US steel exports were 939,185 net tons (NT) for the month of November 2013, the lowest levels seen since December 2010 when exports were 934,471 NT. Total November steel trade to countries outside of the United States is down 17.1 percent compared to October levels and down 6.0 percent […]
Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunchrisk, LLC has the duties of outlining the hot rolled futures and busheling scrap futures markets for our readers (as well as taking a look at the financial markets, iron ore and commodities in general): On the March S+P future we closed at 1833, this is up from the 1806 level […]
At the end of 2013, David Phelps retired as president of the American Institute for International Steel (AIIS) and has just joined Steel Market Update as a contributing writer. Mr. Phelps will be writing about topics concerning the steel industry – particularly in the area of imports and foreign steel. Steel Market Update had a […]
Final November trade data shows that the United States received a total of 2,592,549 net tons of steel for the month. This is a decrease of 16.4 percent compared to the 3,101,063 NT imported in October. It is also a decrease from November 2012 tonnage by 4.8 percent. December license data figures are estimated at […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce recently released revised import statistics for the month of November and December. Total preliminary imports for November are 2,584,176 net tons (NT), down 16.7 percent compared to October import figures. November imports are below both the 3 month-moving-average (3MMA) and 12 month-moving-average (12MMA) calculated through October. December imports, based on […]
The year 2013 for hot rolled steel futures was a story of two halves, with the beginning of the year trading in a strong contango and the second half of the year stuck in backwardation. The beginning of the year was characterized by low prices and significant volatility while the second half of the year […]
The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.3 in December from 53.1 in November, expanding for the twelfth consecutive month. Manufacturing production increased at its fastest pace since Feb. 2011, with growth rate of new orders holding steady at November’s rate. Exports rose for the sixth consecutive month. The US, Japan, Germany, the UK […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Index showed disappointing manufacturing conditions for December. The survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported the general index at 1.0, up three points from November but indicating almost no change in activity for the month. The future outlook index was slightly less optimistic than November with all indices […]
SMU Price Momentum Indicator ended the month of December where it began, indicating higher flat rolled steel prices over the next 30 days. The domestic steel mills did not disappoint as they raised base price levels to $35.00/cwt on hot rolled and $40.50/cwt on cold rolled and coated (plus extras, FOB mill) for the mills […]