“Everyone wants business,” is how the conversation began with one of our Midwest service center sources. “Everyone has steel to sell,” is what he told us. However, he admitted that the bottom has not dropped out of this market. That feeling of concern was heard in a number of places. Flat rolled steel prices seem […]
Service center flat rolled shipments rose by 7 percent or, 1 percent more than we had forecast when we last produced our Apparent Excess/Deficit report for our Premium subscribers. Flat rolled shipments in July averaged 108,800 tons per day up from the 101,700 tons per day shipped last July. At the end of June we […]
One of the Steel Market Update proprietary products is our U.S. Service Center Apparent Inventory Excess/Deficit report and forecast. Once per month, SMU analyzes the MSCI flat rolled steel shipments and flat rolled steel inventories and we calculate whether the steel distributors are either over-inventories (excess) or under-inventoried (deficit) based on our proprietary formula. We […]
The service centers who sell secondary or excess prime flat rolled steels are reporting a very tight market as less material is being made available out of the steel mills and holes are developing in steel service center inventories. Secondary steel buying prices out of the domestic mills have been moving up but have not […]
The SMU Key Market Indicators is a Premium Level product produced by Peter Wright in collaboration with Steel Market Update. Our Executive Level members have been getting access to all of the Premium Level data for the month of July (today is the last day). This includes access to all of the Premium data which […]
At the end of May 2014 Steel Market Update calculated that the U.S. service center flat rolled steel inventories were short (apparent deficit) by -632,000 tons. At that point in time we projected that the inventory deficit would be reduced by 45,000 tons and that by the end of June the apparent deficit would be […]
Total steel shipments (all products) out of the U.S. service centers totaled 3,687,600 tons according to data released by the Metal Service Center Institute (MSCI) for the month of June. This represents an increase of 10.2 percent compared to June 2013. There were 21 shipping days during June 2014 compared to 20 shipping days last […]
On Monday, United States Steel (USS) announced a base price increase on all new flat–rolled steel orders. The $25 per ton increase ($1.25/cwt) was to be “…applicable to all open quotations and/or negotiations where an agreement is not yet concluded….” As with most price announcements all published pricing extras were to be applied to any […]
Hot rolled prices eroded during the month of June with the month ending at $660 per ton ($33.00/cwt) and our June monthly average $666 per ton. At the end of May our average was $680 per ton so we are down $14 per ton based on the monthly averages. The CRU hot rolled coil futures […]
On Monday, United States Steel (USS) announced a base price increase on all new flat–rolled steel orders. The $25 per ton increase ($1.25/cwt) was to be “…applicable to all open quotations and/or negotiations where an agreement is not yet concluded….” As with most price announcements all published pricing extras were to be applied to any […]
Hot rolled prices eroded during the month of June with the month ending at $660 per ton ($33.00/cwt) and our June monthly average $666 per ton. At the end of May our average was $680 per ton so we are down $14 per ton based on the monthly averages. The CRU hot rolled coil futures […]
A short note to let our Premium Level members know that our Steel Market Update survey results are online and can be accessed on the website. If you need assistance accessing any of the Premium products on our website please let me or Brett@SteelMarketUpdate.com know and we will help you. We are also sharing this […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered at present is thirty five, the Chicago Fed Mid-West Manufacturing Index is still on hold to enable the staff to complete a major re-vamp of the […]
Every month, Steel Market Update calculates whether flat rolled steel distributor’s inventories are in excess or a deficit based on our proprietary formula. The Metal Service Center Institute released April data late last week and, based on our analysis, we believe the “apparent deficit” to be 251,000 tons. This represents an improvement of 101,000 tons […]
Higher volumes increased Olympic Steel net sales 2.6 percent to $347 million in Q1 2014 from $338 million a year ago. Net sales increased sequentially by 19 percent despite adverse shipping conditions. Net income totaled $2.8 million, down from 5.16 million in 2013 Flat steel volume increased 3 percent y/y to 299,000 tons for the […]
Service centers and steel brokers within the secondary (non-prime) segment of the flat rolled industry are advising Steel Market Update that prices on secondary are rising just as quickly as prime. Production problems at a number of mills, coupled with logistics problems holding back shipments from some mill locations, has helped tighten inventories of vanilla […]
Flat rolled steel pricing momentum reversed course due to the price increase announcement led by ArcelorMittal and followed by virtually all of the domestic and Canadian steel mills. We moved the SMU Price Momentum Indicator first to Neutral and then a week later to Higher in response to the increase announcements and the fact that […]
We are beginning to see a new push away from a fragmented steel mill supply base as closures of capacity coupled with the recent acquisition of ThyssenKrupp Steel USA by ArcelorMittal/Nippon Steel Sumitomo Metals Corporation (AM/NS Calvert) are reducing the number of players and the tons in the game. Over the past two years we […]
Based on the most recent MSCI flat rolled steel data Steel Market Update has calculated that U.S. service centers dwindled their “Excess” inventories from +150,000 tons at the end of January to +28,000 tons at the end of February. Our forecast from last month was for service center excess to drop to +80,900 tons. So, […]
On Monday of this week, Steel Market Update (SMU) began our early March flat rolled steel market analysis. We sent invitations to just under 600 companies associated with the industry. Of the companies responding 44 percent were manufacturing companies (end users), 40 percent were steel service centers/wholesalers (distributors), trading companies represented 6 percent of the […]
The domestic steel mills did not announce any flat rolled steel price increases during the month of February. The last price increase announcement was made by USS/POSCO to their West Coast customers on January 30th. The last announcement on the East Coast was ArcelorMittal Dofasco which adjusted prices to take into account the lost value […]
Tonight’s issue is a mouth full. There are times when events occur which need more than 300 words to address. And, in the steel industry, there can be many viewpoints on the same subject. OCTG is one of those subjects. I hope you found the three articles from David Phelps, Paul Lowrey and Peter Brebach. […]
On Monday, Steel Market Update revised our SMU Price Momentum Indicator from Neutral to Lower. The adjustment means we anticipate flat rolled steel prices will move lower over the next 30 to 60 days. At the time of the change, SMU benchmark hot rolled coil was published at $660 per ton. The last adjustment to […]
Earnings reports are accompanied by conference calls which allow us to get some insight on what the steel leaders are thinking about in the industry. SMU decided to look at the comments by AK Steel, Nucor, Steel Dynamics, and US Steel for ideas on where the steel industry is headed for 2014. All four of […]
Late last week Steel Market Update concluded our mid-January market survey of the flat rolled steel market in Canada and the United States. The survey is conducted by invitation only and is sent to slightly less than 600 companies. The breakout of the respondents was: 48 percent manufacturing companies, 42 percent service centers/wholesalers, 5 percent […]
The Metal Service Center Institute (MSCI) produced their analysis of service center shipments and inventories as of the end of December 2013. According to the MSCI flat rolled inventories stood at 4,981,400 tons which represented a 2.6 month’s supply on a non-seasonally adjusted basis and 2.1 months supply based on seasonally adjusted data. Steel Market […]
One of the interesting points brought out in the most recent flat rolled steel survey is distributors inventories are rising. According to the results from last week’s survey steel inventories rose to their highest levels since January 2013 and now stand at 2.35 months. MSCI data is due out later this week and SMU is […]
SMU Price Momentum Indicator ended the month of December where it began, indicating higher flat rolled steel prices over the next 30 days. The domestic steel mills did not disappoint as they raised base price levels to $35.00/cwt on hot rolled and $40.50/cwt on cold rolled and coated (plus extras, FOB mill) for the mills […]
On Monday, December 16th we began collecting data for our last Steel Market Update flat rolled steel market analysis. The way the system works is over the years Steel Market Update (SMU) has vetted a number of companies (many of whom John Packard did business with in the past). Our current list has approximately 600 […]
Steel Market Update continues to enhance our proprietary service center inventory model which we call SMU Apparent Excess/Deficit. We are now forecasting service center inventories using our model and, for that reason, in the future we will move this data into the Premium Level within our website. Using our model shipments, shipments were up year-over-year […]