Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
March 25, 2013
I remember back to August 2008 when I first started selling memberships to the Steel Market Update newsletter – one of my good steel customers from my Winner Steel and trading company days wondered out loud when he told me he didn’t know what I would be writing about in 30 days (in other words he thought I would run out of things to write about). It has been almost a full five years since SMU has been existence and we still have plenty to write about.
More importantly, to both me and our readers, we have expanded the company so we have more people to research, write, educate and market our products. Back in 2008 , I did 100 percent of the company writing. As you look at this issue you will notice that is no longer the case.
Plus, our company continues to grow.
I am pleased to announce we will have another new face joining our ranks as of Monday, March 25th. John Temples, former Learning Leader of Pacesetter Steel Service, Inc. will be joining our growing organization. John has a Master’s Degree in Education and an extensive resume on training and the learning process – particularly as it relates to the steel industry.
With the addition of John Temples and Peter Wright just before him, Steel Market Update continues its focus on knowledge/ learning/ understanding as being key focal points for our company.
For those who have not been keeping track, I now have the following people working with me to improve and grow our company and expand our services to our readers and those who are interacting with our website, workshops and Steel Summit conference: Brett Linton, Sophia Fain, Diana Packard, Jack Marshall, Sandy Williams, Peter Wright and John Temples. We also have three instructors who should be mentioned as part of our team: John Eckstein & Steve Painter who are with our Steel 101 workshop and Andre Marshall who is our instructor for Managing Price Risk. We also have a number of contributing writers which include (but are not limited to): Paul Lowrey of Steel Research Associates, Damon Sun of Daido International and a trading company source in Asia who prefers to remain anonymous. From one we have spawned many.
Please join me in welcoming Mr. Temples to our organization. His email address is: JohnTemples@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
Your business and your support have helped Steel Market Update grow and we all truly appreciate your kind words, suggestions, assistance in bringing us new business and most importantly we truly appreciate your business.
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?