Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
March 10, 2014
For our Premium Level members – we should have a special Premium Supplemental newsletter for you by Wednesday afternoon. In it will be an article on currency values and changes and their impact on the market as well as our imports by product, port and country. We will be including slabs in our import by port report. We also will have a special report on net imports by Peter Wright.
We are looking for price providers for plate products. If you would be interested in becoming a price provider please contact me at: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
Our next Steel 101 workshop is about 60 percent sold out. We do have spots available but we recommend that those interested not wait until the last minute. Based on past experiences we believe the tour of the Severstal Dearborn facility will be tremendous and help our attendees better understand the steelmaking process and learn more about Severstal as a steel supplier. As with all of our programs this one promises to have a very diverse group of attendees with manufacturing, service centers, logistics, mill people and others associated with the industry participating. The networking is an important part of the program. You can learn more about the workshop in the Events section of our website.
I hope to be able to unveil our next Managing Price Risk 2: Strategies & Execution workshop which we are trying to have ready for late April/May in Chicago. More on this soon.
I was speaking with a couple of metals and mining analysts earlier today. One of the questions on their minds was: How can the flat rolled mills be running at approximately 90 percent of capacity and steel not be able to have any pricing power? The question was asked of ArcelorMittal during their investor conference in New York City yesterday (Monday) and the only response was “foreign imports.” We heard that the mill does not anticipate closing any of their facilities – even with the acquisition of the TK Calvert facility (AM/NS Calvert).
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update. Keep in touch with us by asking questions. You care welcome to let us know what you are thinking and what questions you may have for us: info@SteelMarketUpdate.com or you can send them directly to me: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
John Packard, Publisher
Special offer for new subscribers during March – contact JohnTemples@SteelMarketUpdate.com or Ryan@SteelMarketUpdate.com for more details.
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?