Net Imports of Sheet Products through May 2014

Net imports = imports minus exports, we regard this as an important look at the overall trade picture and its effect on demand at the mill level. Figure 1 shows that net sheet product imports on a three month moving average (3MMA) basis increased in May to the highest level since before the recession. The deterioration in net was entirely an import effect, exports have also increased this year and were up again in May.

Table 1 shows net imports by product. Year to date through May, total flat rolled net imports were 3,619,056 tons of which 2,998,795 tons were sheet products. Net sheet imports more than doubled y/y being up by 1,654,837 tons. Net imports increased on all products except rail, led by hot band which increased by 616,783 tons. Electro-galvanized was the only product to have a trade surplus in 2013 and 2014 year to date but this surplus declined in 2014.In Table 1 negative net imports, (which means a trade surplus) are shown in green.

Figure 2 shows the trend of monthly net sheet product imports since January 2011 on a 3MMA basis. The trade surplus of electro-galvanized has been dwindling since late 2011, cold rolled has shot up markedly this year and has caught up with HDG.