Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
July 18, 2014
In the last issue of Steel Market Update I warned that there are lots of rumors swamping the steel market as negotiations for Severstal NA heat up (or are perhaps already over) and Gallatin entertains bids on their mill (half owned by Gerdau and half ArcelorMittal). The other mill issue is the Chapter 15 (Canadian equivalent of Chapter 11) filing by Essar Steel Algoma. Consolidation is upon us and will be one of the topics which we will need to discuss during our Steel Summit Conference in September.
Speaking of our Steel Summit Conference and speakers – I don’t know how many of you had a chance to see metals and mining analyst, Timna Tanners of Bank of America Merrill Lynch on Fox Business News last week. If you missed it here is a link to her comments and optimism regarding the steel industry in the U.S. At the left is a photo taken of her off the TV screen.
Timna Tanners and John Anton of IHS Global Insight will be featured speakers discussing the changes occurring in with the steel industry and they will forecast benchmark steel prices for 2015 and beyond. This year will be the 4th time they have spoken together at one of our conferences. As we have found out on previous occasions they do not necessarily agree on their forecasts. This year we will give them a chance to ask each other questions as well as present to our attendees.
The next week or two are looking like they will be quite interesting. We may start to get some clarity regarding the Severstal Deaborn and Columbus plants. We may also get some action (or not) on the rumored trade case on cold rolled and potentially coated flat rolled products.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
Where do you want to be the first week of September?
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Tariff-related noise aside, there is one basic factor keeping buyers on the sidelines. Despite recent declines, HR prices remain at historically high levels. And there is no obvious support to keep them there.
Final Thoughts
United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.
Final Thoughts
Despite some scary headlines lately (especially about Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell) this is not October 2008 (financial crisis) or March 2020 (onset of the pandemic). But it sure seems like we’ve taken a relatively strong economy and poured a thick sauce of uncertainty over it.
Final Thoughts
I put some of our survey data through ChatGpt, with interesting results.
Final Thoughts
Nearly 50% of respondents to our latest survey thought hot-rolled coil prices have already peaked. And where will those prices be two months from now? Responses were decidedly split on that question.