Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
May 27, 2015
That sound you may be hearing is the drums (again) pounding, pounding louder and louder. I continue to get calls from people who “heard from a friend” that the dumping suits are days, maybe hours away. I don’t know if it is the boy in the woods crying wolf for the umpteenth time. Or a vision of what is soon to be a reality. I think most believe that the suits will become a reality. However, there are those who believe it will be all for nothing. I will go into that in more detail in Sunday evening’s edition of SMU…
I will also write about our next Steel 101 workshop which will be in Davenport, Iowa in early October.
But first, I have to talk all of you into attending what will be one of the finest Steel Summit Conferences ever. I can say that every year because one of my goals is to improve upon and surpass (and not repeat) the previous year’s exceptional conference. We will succeed in doing it once again with this year’s event.
No excuses:
Dates: Arrival into Atlanta on August 31, 2015 mid to late afternoon. You want to allow for some networking time at the bar at the Atlanta Airport Marriott Gateway Hotel. We will be there and we will try to drag as many of our speakers to the hotel as possible…
Day 1 will begin at 8 AM on Tuesday, September 1st with a special pre-Summit program conducted by Paul Lowrey of Steel Research Associates. The day will end with a cocktail party at the convention center.
Day 2 will begin with breakfast at 7:30 and our Keynote speaker, Alan Beaulieu of the Institute for Trend Research at 8:15. If you have not heard Mr. Beaulieu speak before, you will not be disappointed. Day 2 will be worth staying until the end (around 3:30 PM) as we will have Dan DiMicco and a panel about Government, Regulation and Trade. Probably just what the doctor ordered should the dumping suits actually get filed.
Cost: $1200 per person before discounts. Early bird (register before July 1st) drops the price to $1000 and if your company is an SMU member it drops to $900 per person.
If you want to send a whole bunch of people – give me a call – 770-596-6268.
Registration: Can be done on our website or you can contact our office: 800-432-3475.
If you can’t attend: Please recommend our conference to your friends in the industry.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?