Final Thoughts

December 2, 2015

Tonight I thought I would present a question posed to me within the past couple of days and ask for your input in answering the question. How would you respond to this?

Has the steel industry in the US stopped following laws of economics or are we living the great delusion of “ok” demand? Consider the following facts:

1. Steel imports into US have trended down from June thru Oct meanwhile domestic production has also fallen –> suggests demand slowness
2. Despite trade cases and relatively few tons of steel actually coming from China, US steel mills have not tried raising prices
3. Service center shipments have trended down from spring onward and inventory levels are relatively high with MoS at around 2.8 – 3.0
4. From demand perspective – auto is doing well and construction is doing okay and these account for 60-70% of steel demand in USA
5. Assuming, turmoil in Machinery/Energy .. demand might have slackened by 5-7 MM tonnes (annualized) but idled mills account for ~ 4-5 MM tonnes

Will appreciate your thoughts. Am I underestimating the machinery/energy/other industry impact?

You can respond by sending an email to me directly: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com. You are also welcome to contact my office by phone if you are more comfortable speaking with me directly: 800-432-3475.

We will be reporting on the ongoing scrap negotiations in Sunday evening’s newsletter. Will poor demand at the steel mills trump slowing collection rates?

As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.

John Packard, Publisher