Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
May 11, 2016
Good evening (or Good Morning depending on when you read our newsletter) from Chicago. The mood is upbeat by most attending the Boy Scout Dinner due to the rising steel prices which have helped service centers and steel mills get healthier.
A couple of secondary steel service centers told me that their business has also been affected by the tightness in the market. At the beginning of my steel career I sold secondary galvanized steel. So, I was asking how the end customers of the secondary service centers were reacting to price and quality (secondary buyers can sometimes be a little claim happy). I was told that the market has changed. Service centers are walking away from the stubborn buyer who hasn’t yet accepted reality. One east coast secondary service center told me about a structural steel buyer who, in the past, refused to accept grade 60 coils. Now, the service center was being chastised by that same end user for not offering the same grade 60 coils to them (of course we can use them…!).
Having lived through the shortage years of 2004 and again in 2008 there was discussion about whether 2016 was the same kind of market as those years. From my perspective I don’t think so. Demand is not as strong as it was during those periods of time. The other thing that I am not seeing is any of the domestic mills renegotiating prices on existing orders. I am seeing longer lead times and some lateness but nothing like what happened during 2004 and early 2008.
And, everyone remembers what happened at the end of 2008…
Thank you to everyone I spoke with for your kind words about Steel Market Update (newsletter) and our Steel Summit Conference. I hope I see you all again in Atlanta at the end of August (29th – 31st).
It was nice to see a number of our former Steel 101 attendees at the dinner this evening. We learned a number have been promoted (some a number of times) and all were doing well. We are doing our next Steel 101 in Sylvania, OH next week. I am looking forward to a new crop of attendees. Our next one will be in November in Memphis, Tennessee with a tour of the Big River Steel.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher

John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
We just wrapped another Steel 101 Workshop, where you take what you learned in the classroom into the steel mill.

Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.

Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.

Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.

Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.