Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
March 15, 2017
A quick note about our galvanized index: Effective today we are adjusting the coating extra being used on our .060” G90 galvanized benchmark items from $69 per ton to $78 per ton. We are continuing to use the US Steel extra for guidance. So, the change that you see in our G90 item is a reflection of the new coating extras and not a jump in the base prices (which, by the way, remain the same as what we reported on Tuesday evening). I did check with CRU and they are also using the $78 per ton coating extra.
I receive lead times for a number of steel mills during the course of the week. I am seeing coated lead times out into late April and into May. In some cases we are even seeing some late May lead times for specialty products. SDI is on an Inquire basis for many of their items in both Columbus and Butler (note: we are talking about “spot” lead times and not those related to their contract customers where the mill most likely has blocked tonnage or production space).
On Monday, we will begin our mid-March flat rolled steel market trends analysis (a long-winded way of saying survey). If you have not been invited to participate and you would like to, please contact me with your name, email address, phone number, company and position.
You may have noticed I have started collecting price ranges and coming up with an average on plate products. Our range on Tuesday was $720-$770 per ton with an average of $745 per ton. I would like to expand our plate coverage so I am looking for plate people to participate in our surveys and to identify themselves so I can communicate with you on a regular basis. We never attribute company names or individual identities in our publication or website (or outside of our company).
If you have any questions or would like to be added to our survey invitation, please contact me at John@SteelMarketUpdate.com
Registrations continue to be quite strong for the SMU Steel Summit Conference which will be held in Atlanta on August 28, 29, 30th. We are strengthening the conference this year. We have added consulting firm Applied Value Group to our program. They will take about mitigating risks – especially in the purchasing functions of companies. They will discuss risk strategies, your risk profile and lining up the cost side of your business with the sales side. We added the Applied Value Group based on the suggestion of one of our OEM customers and attendee to past SMU Steel Summit Conferences. Flack Global Metals will be sponsoring our Monday afternoon program this year and we encourage you to arrive in the late AM to early afternoon on Monday, August 28th to get the most out of our Risk Management program and the networking that will be happening at the Marriott Gateway Hotel that afternoon and evening. We will begin registration around 1:30 PM on Monday afternoon at the hotel.
You can register for the conference on our website (as an individual or as a group) or by contacting our offices: 772-932-7538 or 706-216-2140. Questions go to: info@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
I want to take a moment to welcome our newest members to Steel Market Update. We encourage all of our members to interact with us – ask questions, point out errors (or tell us you like something we are doing) and to make suggestions. As I noted above, we do listen to suggestions and many of our articles, adjustments to our workshops and conference come from our members. I can be reached almost 24 hours a day at: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com or on my office phone: 800-432-3475.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
We just wrapped another Steel 101 Workshop, where you take what you learned in the classroom into the steel mill.
Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.