Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
June 2, 2017
Multiple sources are advising SMU that California Steel (CSI) has announced a $30 per ton ($1.50/cwt) increase for production orders during the first two weeks of July. After that they will evaluate pricing and make a further announcement. We will investigate this further over the next couple of days and advise our readers what this means.
According to SMU scrap sources, on Friday of last week Nucor and Steel Dynamics (SDI) cancelled the remaining open ferrous scrap orders they had with dealers for delivery during the month of May. Other mills only cancelled shredded scrap orders. The bottom line being the domestic steel mills are expecting ferrous scrap pricing to drift lower as negotiations get going in earnest for the month of June delivery.
On Monday morning we will begin our early June flat rolled steel market trends analysis. If you receive an invite please click on the button contained in the message and spend a few moments helping us to better understand what is happening in the flat rolled markets.
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John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?