Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
March 2, 2018
Oscar Night, so I will keep my comments short and sweet…maybe.
I was told by one of our readers over the weekend that it would cost U.S. Steel $100 million to re-start Granite City. They wanted to know if that was correct? I did some checking with a number of analysts and was told that Granite City would cost about $10-$15 million dollars and take about 12 weeks to come back up. I do not have information on AK Steel, but my expectation is Ashland would cost $5-$15 million to bring back to life. We are checking with USS and AK Steel to see what plans they have to bring the steelmaking operations and whatever rolling facilities that are not running now back to life. We will report back.
I will be traveling to Scottsdale, Ariz., for the Fabricators and Manufacturers Association (FMA) annual meeting. I will be on a panel with Ladd Hall of Nucor and Don McNeeley of Chicago Tube and Iron. Something tells me the audience is going to want to talk about Section 232… I will be prepared to do so. If you are going to be in Scottsdale and would like to sit and chat, please shoot me an email: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
We will begin our early March flat rolled steel market analysis (survey) on Monday morning. If invited, please take a few minutes to participate.
I am also working on service center inventories and collecting data from our steel and plate service center data providers. Please send me your information ASAP as we will publish our “Flash” report on Tuesday and try to have the full report done by the end of the week, if possible. If you would like to add your company to the list of providers (which is totally confidential), please contact me at John@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
Registrations for our 8th SMU Steel Summit Conference are running 30 percent ahead of last year’s pace. You will begin to see almost daily announcements of speakers and programs as we roll out our final agenda. This will be the largest steel conference in North America during 2018 and it will be our best. There is much to cover during the conference. But, we haven’t forgotten that many of you come because the conference is full of decision-makers in manufacturing, steel distribution, steel production (mills), trading companies, toll processors and suppliers to the industry. We encourage interaction through our Conference App, as well as one-on-one during the conference. Please note that all three days will be held inside the Georgia Internatioanal Convention Center this year as we have outgrown the Marriott Hotel. There will be two networking cocktail parties in the GICC – one hosted by Steel Dynamics and the second by Heidtman Steel. WiFi is once again free, compliments of our Conference Partner – Pacesetter. Go to www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/events/steel-summit to register and to learn more about the conference.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?