Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
April 27, 2018
This is going to be a crucial week for the steel industry and especially for those trading in foreign steel. As many of you know, President Trump set an expiration date to the country exclusions of May 1, 2018. That is Tuesday, so we should know more about what is going to happen over the next 36 to 48 hours.
We have been hearing that Brazil is close to agreeing to a quota on imports. We are hearing the quota may be 100 percent of the three-year average of slabs (which are used by the domestic mills) and 70 percent for the balance of the steel products.
Europe took a stronger stance, refusing to negotiate until their countries were provided with a permanent exclusion from the Section 232 tariffs. Both the French and German leaders have been pleading their case directly to Trump in recent days. The expectation is for the EU to get an extension.
So, we will all be watching Washington, D.C., on Monday and Tuesday for direction.
A note to those interested in learning more about trade and trade issues, at the end of August trade attorney Lewis Leibowitz will join us on the podium and will address the many questions you might have on the subject. We will also have Grant Aldonas, former Under Secretary of Commerce during the Bush administration. Aldonas was responsible for overseeing the Section 201 restrictions on steel in the early 2000s. You can join us in Atlanta on Aug. 27-29 for our 8th SMU Steel Summit Conference by going to www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/Events/Steel-Summit or by contacting our office at 772-932-7538.
The U.S. Department of Commerce has another decision, which will be coming down this week. Late last week, one of our readers inquired as to the status of the Chinese circumvention case, for which a final ruling was due last week. We reached out to Lewis Leibowitz to see what we could learn from him. He told us, “Last week, Commerce announced a delay in the final determination for one week, to May 2, 2018. The decision will be announced around noon on May 3.” So, we will have more on this topic the evening of May 3.
Lastly, our Steel 101 workshop has about 3-5 seats still available. The workshop is in Memphis, Tenn., at the Westin in downtown Memphis (home of the blues and bar-b-que), and we will tour two Nucor mills: Nucor Hickman and Nucor-Yamato. You can find more details on our website: www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/Events/Steel101 or by contacting our office at 800-432-3475.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
We just wrapped another Steel 101 Workshop, where you take what you learned in the classroom into the steel mill.
Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.