Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
October 1, 2018
One more day in Chicago before I head back to my office in Florida. I have been attending the CRU North American Steel Conference.
CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison spoke about President Trump doing what he promised he would do on the campaign trail. “If he said he is going to do X, then we have to assume he is going to do X.” She went on to say, “The narrative doesn’t change until the person changes.”
I was speaking with an attorney who represents the domestic steel mills and we talked about the sanctions against China. He told me that there is a parallel between Reagan and Russia when the U.S. basically chose to outspend Russia on weapon systems. He then said what the U.S. is doing now is betting we can outlast China when it comes to how large a deficit each country can tolerate. He told me China can print money without oversight. The U.S. deficit is now $1 trillion per year. He did not know who will blink first. But, as Ms. Morrison noted above, “The narrative doesn’t change until the person changes.”
In my opinion, President Trump is right, previous administrations did not confront the Chinese and their theft of technology and trade secrets. Changing the stripes on the zebra is going to be difficult.
We are close to being sold out for our Dec. 11 & 12 Steel 101 workshop. We have approximately 5-6 seats left. The workshop will be held in Toledo, Ohio, and we will tour the North Star BlueScope steel mill. If you want to know more about the workshop, please go to www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/events/steel101. If you have any questions, please contact us at info@SteelMarketUpdate.com
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO

John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
We just wrapped another Steel 101 Workshop, where you take what you learned in the classroom into the steel mill.

Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.

Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.

Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.

Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.