Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
December 5, 2018
It has been a busy week for Steel Market Update. I spoke at the HARDI annual conference in Austin, Texas, on Sunday and I was in Atlanta on Tuesday evening and Wednesday working with our web developers. I am in the office on Friday.
Next week I will be in Toledo, Ohio, on Monday through Wednesday as we conduct a sold-out Steel 101 workshop and tour the North Star BlueScope steel mill. A special thank you to Michael Hanson, Vice President of Sales and Marketing for North Star BlueScope, for his help in putting this workshop together.
A note that if you missed our webinar with SMU/CRU, you can listen to it by clicking on this link.
We have been working on our service center inventories project all week and we will provide our data providers a “Flash” report on the results to date on Friday of this week. Our data providers know we have expanded the focus and greatly improved the quality of the data we are collecting. We are looking for flat rolled or plate service centers to participate. Data providers will receive our Flash report as well as detailed analysis of the data once the report has been completed prior to the middle of the month. If you would be interested and would like to learn more about the process, you are welcome to contact me or DeWayne.Tuthill@crugroup.com We would love to help you help us improve your business…
SMU has four (4) sponsor spots left for the 2019 SMU Steel Summit Conference (actually two are on hold pending final confirmation from last year’s sponsors). We also have a limited number of exhibition spaces left. As you may recall, the 2018 SMU Steel Summit Conference attracted 912 attendees. We anticipate that number to exceed 1,000 for our 2019 event. We have become THE PREMIER steel conference in North America. If your company has an interest in either a sponsor spot or exhibition space, please contact Jill Waldman at Jill@SteelMarketUpdate.com
We completed our early December flat rolled steel market analysis earlier today. This is something we do twice per month. We generate our Steel Buyers Sentiment Index, Mill Lead Times and Price Negotiations out of the questions posed to buyers and sellers of flat rolled and plate steels. Our Premium members will get access to a rather large PowerPoint presentation putting much of the data collected into a historical context. There is much more data collected than what we share with our Executive members. If you would like to learn more about how to upgrade to a Premium level membership, please contact Paige Mayhair at 724-720-1012 or by email at: Paige.Mayhair@crugroup.com
We have booked a number of seats for the upcoming Steel 101: Introduction to Steel Making & Market Fundamentals workshop slated for Jan. 29-30 of the New Year. The workshop will be in balmy (we hope) Starkville, Miss., and we will tour the always warm SDI Columbus steel mill and paint line. You can find more details on our website, and you are always welcome to contact us with any questions you might have: info@SteelMarketUpdate.com
Tomorrow is Pearl Harbor Day. It was on Dec. 7, 1941, that the Japanese military launched a surprise attack on the U.S. naval base at Pearl Harbor in Hawaii. The attack led to the U.S. entry into World War II.
A note: I am looking for companies that have filed exclusion requests and have been denied. If this has happened to your company, could you please let me know. I am just trying to better understand the process.
Also, to date we have not found one company that has had their exclusion request accepted despite objections by the domestic mills. In the Priefert acceptance letter, the U.S. Department of Commerce said there were no objections (so both mills must have removed their objections, or USS’ inability to make the product may have disqualified their objection). If your company received an exclusion from the 232’s despite objections by the domestic steel mills, we would very much like to know.
I can be reached at John@SteelMarketUpdate.com or by phone at 800-432-3475.
As always, your business is appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?