Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
May 27, 2019
Editor’s note: John Packard is on vacation.
It appears many steel buyers are holding off on purchases while they wait to see if imports resume from Canada, Mexico and Turkey now that President Trump has reversed himself on the Section 232 tariffs. “Lead times are stagnating/shortening and the mills are in full negotiation mode,” said one steel executive this week, which helps to explain the declining steel prices reported in this issue.
Other telling comments from SMU’s latest market canvass:
“Like most buyers, I won’t buy at this level for fear of prices going lower. I’m concerned about how weak the market is.”
“I am not buying much these days. Like everyone else, we are becoming more cautious about 2H19 and I am pulling inventory down. The shrinking mill lead times allow us to have less on order because we can get it more quickly now.”
“Lead times are shorter than normal. We’re seeing mill production orders at both EAFs and integrated suppliers producing early. The mills are willing to negotiate.”
“We haven’t seen any new offers on products out of Mexico, Canada or Turkey yet. I think they will be cautious and try to stay under the radar.”
“Suppliers representing Turkish tons have gotten in touch. However, given the falling domestic market, and the remaining 25 percent tariff, I don’t think Turkish steel will be competitive as of now on flat-rolled.”
“It’s a tough market. It does appear we are getting close to the bottom. The question is, what will be the catalyst to reverse the momentum?”
Registrations for Steel Market Update’s Steel Summit, set for Aug. 26-28 in Atlanta, have passed the 600 mark and counting. It’s not too early to secure your spot at the industry’s premier educational and networking event. The registration link for the conference can be found here or you can go to our website: www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/Events/Steel-Summit
Want to get some recognition for that really talented young executive who’s raising the bar in your organization? Click here for information on how to nominate him or her for SMU’s new NexGen Leadership Award.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
Tim Triplett, Executive Editor

John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
If I could change something, it’d be this: Political news would get more boring. And news about steel prices and steel demand would get a little more exciting.

Final Thoughts: Survey says edition
SMU’s latest survey results indicate that steel market participants think sheet prices are at or near a bottom. But most also think there is limited upside once they inflect higher.

Final Thoughts
A recent IIMA meeting in Brazil shows how the US and much of the rest of the world are operating in parallel realities.

Final Thoughts
We moved our pricing momentum indicators from “lower” to “neutral” for all sheet products this week. For those keeping score, we had been at “lower” for six weeks. And I know some of you think we should have been there for even longer.

Final Thoughts: The long shadow of Ken Iverson
Renowned Nucor Chairman and CEO Ken Iverson would’ve turned 100 on Sept. 18 of this year.