SMU Data and Models
SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index: Optimism Not Up with Prices
Written by Tim Triplett
August 11, 2019
Steel prices are up, but the same cannot be said for industry optimism. Following a brief uptick shortly after the mill price increases were announced last month, Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index has ticked back down. Steel buyers’ comments suggest that concerns about the economy, steel demand and the staying power of the higher prices are weighing on industry sentiment.
The goal of SMU’s Buyers Sentiment Index is to measure how buyers and sellers of steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful today (Current Sentiment Index), as well as three to six months into the future (Future Sentiment Index). Results are posted as both single data points and as three-month moving averages (3MMAs) to smooth out the trend. As the charts below show, sentiment has been on a downward slope for much of the year, as measured by the 3MMAs. Note that all the current readings are above zero and on the optimistic half of SMU’s scale. Therefore, industry sentiment overall remains fairly positive on a historical basis. But the market is clearly less optimistic than it was at this time in 2018.
Current Sentiment measured as a single data point registered +48 in the latest data, down a percentage point from mid-July. At this time last year, Current Sentiment registered +65. Current Sentiment peaked at +78 in January 2018.
Measured as a 3MMA, Current Sentiment averaged +42.83, up only slightly over the past month. At this time last year, the 3MMA for Current Sentiment registered +65.00, considerably closer to the April 2017 peak for the index of 74.17.
Future Sentiment
Respondents were asked to assess their chances for success in three to six months. Measured as a single data point, Future Sentiment registered +48, down from +57 two weeks ago. Future Sentiment peaked at +77 in February 2017.
Measured as a 3MMA, the Future Sentiment Index averaged 47.00, down slightly from SMU’s last data set. Future 3MMA peaked at 73.67 in March 2017.
What Our Respondents Had to Say
“Sharp price changes are bad for service centers. Usually, our selling prices move up much slower than mill prices, and then prices move back down, leaving us with high-cost inventory and selling prices that are dropping like a rock.”
“As manufacturers see less future demand and contracts, all will fight over a smaller pie and companies will we be squeezed. Importers will face more restrictions.”
“Manufacturing and construction indexes are slipping. There’s not much future confidence. And trade laws will continue to get more restrictive, driving up costs and driving out business.”
“I’m still concerned with Chinese imports of manufactured products.”
“We remain concerned of impending general economic troubles.”
About the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index
SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index is a measurement of the current attitude of buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel products in North America regarding how they feel about their company’s opportunity for success in today’s market. It is a proprietary product developed by Steel Market Update for the North American steel industry.
Positive readings will run from +10 to +100 and the arrow will point to the righthand side of the meter located on the Home Page of our website indicating a positive or optimistic sentiment. Negative readings will run from -10 to -100 and the arrow will point to the lefthand side of the meter on our website indicating negative or pessimistic sentiment. A reading of “0” (+/- 10) indicates a neutral sentiment (or slightly optimistic or pessimistic), which is most likely an indicator of a shift occurring in the marketplace.
Readings are developed through Steel Market Update market surveys that are conducted twice per month. We display the index reading on a meter on the Home Page of our website for all to see. Currently, we send invitations to participate in our survey to more than 600 North American companies. Our normal response rate is approximately 110-150 companies. Of those responding to this week’s survey, 38 percent were manufacturers and 46 percent were service centers/distributors. The balance was made up of steel mills, trading companies and toll processors involved in the steel business. Click here to view an interactive graphic of the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index or the SMU Future Steel Buyers Sentiment Index.
Tim Triplett
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