Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
October 18, 2019
Another hectic week for me as I travel to Chicago on Monday and Tuesday. I will be in the office on Wednesday, Thursday and part of the day on Friday before flying to London where I will be visiting CRU offices on Oct. 28, participating in the CRU Breakfast at the British Museum on the 29th as part of LME Week, and then the CRU 50th Anniversary Celebration at the House of Lords on the 30th. I will not return to the office until Monday, Nov. 4.
I am speaking to the North American Steel Alliance on Monday afternoon. During my presentation I will discuss many of the SMU proprietary indices including our pricing indices, Sentiment Index, Mill Lead Times and Mill Negotiations, Service Center Spot Pricing and what this means for the market, Demand Index and our SMU Service Center Inventories & Shipments Analysis. I am looking forward to speaking to NASA for the first time.
If you would like me to speak to your organization or company, please feel free to contact me at John@SteelMarketUpdate.com and I can advise what my schedule looks like, costs involved and any other details that would be of interest to you.
Our next highly recommended and industry acclaimed Steel 101: Introduction to Steel Making & Market Fundamentals workshop will be held in Ontario, Calif., on Jan. 7-8, 2020. We have a strong group of instructors including two metallurgists: Roger Walburn of NLMK USA and Chuck McDaniel who was with Bethlehem Sparrows Point (and all of the other names associated with the company prior to its demise as RG Steel). We also have a purchasing professional in Mario Briccetti and sales professional in Sandy Simon. Rounding out the crew is yours truly with my 42 years of experience in the service center, steel mills, trading company and now analytical segments of the industry. You can learn more about our unique program, which includes a tour of the California Steel Industries steel mill in Fontana, Calif., on our website: www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/Events/Steel101. If you have any questions, we are here to answer them. Send all questions to Events@SteelMarketUpdate.com
I enjoyed speaking to many of our members at the Metalcon Show this past week in Pittsburgh. I hadn’t attended Metalcon in a few years, so it was good to reconnect with those involved in the metal building, roofing and related industries. Thank you for stopping by our booth and talking to either myself or Paige Mayhair who handles sales for SMU.
If you have questions regarding renewals, upgrading your account, adding more members by taking advantage of the new regional and global pricing options we have, or if you just have questions, please contact Paige at Paige@SteelMarketUpdate.com or by phone at 724-720-1012.
We will begin our mid-October flat rolled and plate steel market analysis on Monday morning, Oct. 21 at 8 a.m. If you did not get an invitation, check your SPAM folder. If you do get an invitation, all you have to do is answer the first question located at the end of the invite email and you will then be redirected to the rest of the questionnaire. We currently are inviting 480 individuals from about 460 companies to participate in our twice-monthly analysis. If you would like to be added to our invite list, or have questions about the survey, please contact Brett@SteelMarketUpdate.com or myself at John@SteelMarketUpdate.com
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Tariff-related noise aside, there is one basic factor keeping buyers on the sidelines. Despite recent declines, HR prices remain at historically high levels. And there is no obvious support to keep them there.
Final Thoughts
United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.
Final Thoughts
Despite some scary headlines lately (especially about Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell) this is not October 2008 (financial crisis) or March 2020 (onset of the pandemic). But it sure seems like we’ve taken a relatively strong economy and poured a thick sauce of uncertainty over it.
Final Thoughts
I put some of our survey data through ChatGpt, with interesting results.
Final Thoughts
Nearly 50% of respondents to our latest survey thought hot-rolled coil prices have already peaked. And where will those prices be two months from now? Responses were decidedly split on that question.