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    CRU: Saudi-Russia Price War Begins as Oil Crashes 30 Percent

    Written by Ross Cunningham


    By CRU Senior Cost Economist Ross Cunningham, additional analysis by Ippolito Tarabini and Will Young

    The oil market is currently facing a large degree of uncertainty. Oil prices could feasibly remain around $40/bbl for a significant period of time. Three key judgements will determine CRU’s oil price forecast for 2020: (I) the extent to which Covid-19 will be successfully contained, which would secure a mild recovery of oil demand; (II) how long can the two antagonists of the oil price war—Saudi Arabia and Russia—hold out; and (III) the resilience of the heavily indebted U.S. shale industry.

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    Plate supply squeeze tightens as demand presses higher

    The domestic plate market is showing few signs of relief for steel buyers. Lead times are stretching well beyond seasonal norms, spot availability has all but evaporated, and mills are drawing hard lines on contract volumes heading into 2027 negotiations. And the supply squeeze will likely intensify in a market that some industry sources say is structurally undersupplied because of stringent US trade and tariff policies. Imports have been arriving in larger volumes, and the expectation is they will continue to tick higher into 2027. The big question is whether those foreign tons will arrive in volumes sufficient to provide the relief steel consumers want.